The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Nashville SC win
42%
38%
2.41
fair
New York Red Bulls win
34%
35%
3.00
value: +6%
Draw
25%
27%
3.90
value: +5%
across 16 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Over
63%
50%
1.53
fair
Under
37%
50%
2.60
value: +29%
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Nashville SC win
2.25
2.20
-2.0%
Draw
3.80
3.75
-1.3%
New York Red Bulls win
2.73
2.88
+5.7%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venue
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Yes
65%
55%
1.44
fair
No
35%
45%
2.65
value: +19%
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)