← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 11:00 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.38 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.38 | $16.90 | +0% | — | pending |
leg 1: Draw in Orlando City SC v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.27 leg 2: Sporting Kansas City win in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.60 | WC parlay | $5.00 | 19.64 | $93.21 | +12% | — | pending |
leg 1: Sporting Kansas City win in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.60 leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 leg 3: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 14.05 | $26.09 | +34% | — | pending |
Draw in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.30 | Dutch cover | $2.33 | 4.30 | $7.69 | — | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.60 | Dutch cover | $17.67 | 4.60 | $63.61 | +11% | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.60 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 4.60 | $18.00 | +11% | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.60 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.60 | $18.00 | +11% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC win | 56% | 53% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.47 | fair |
| Sporting Kansas City win | 21% | 24% | 4.80 | value: +16% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City win | 4.30 | 4.45 | +3.5% | |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.20 | +2.4% | |
| Atlanta United FC win | 1.68 | 1.69 | +0.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |