← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 08:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Andrew Abbott (ERA 4.07, WHIP 1.4) · home: Mitch Bratt (ERA 4.17, WHIP 1.47)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Sporting Kansas City win in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.60 leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 leg 3: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 14.05 | $26.09 | +34% | — | pending |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +10% | +7.63 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Portfolio | $11.15 | 1.76 | $8.50 | +3% | +8.50 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 46% | 2.24 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.97 | 2.09 | +6.3% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.67 | 1.76 | +5.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1517.35 | 1466.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.78 | -1.84 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |