← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Bailey Ober (ERA 4.62, WHIP 1.25) · home: Walker Buehler (ERA 4.79, WHIP 1.39)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | Portfolio | $13.89 | 1.74 | $10.28 | +4% | +10.28 | won |
leg 1: Sporting Kansas City win in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.60 leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 leg 3: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 14.05 | $26.09 | +34% | — | pending |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +9% | +7.32 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 45% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.09 | 2.19 | +4.4% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.67 | 1.70 | +1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1535.42 | 1466.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.32 | 5.79 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.70 |