← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Toronto FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 3.80 | Dutch cover | $2.63 | 3.80 | $7.36 | — | — | pending |
Toronto FC win in Toronto FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.95 | Dutch cover | $17.37 | 2.95 | $33.87 | +6% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire win | 42% | 38% | 2.38 | fair |
| Toronto FC win | 33% | 36% | 3.06 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire win | 2.10 | 2.25 | +6.9% | |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.62 | -4.7% | |
| Toronto FC win | 2.96 | 2.90 | -2.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | BMO Field |