FC Cincinnati v New York City FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Aug 19, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Draw in FC Cincinnati v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10	Dutch cover	$2.44	4.10	$7.56	—	—	pending
New York City FC win in FC Cincinnati v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.45	Dutch cover	$17.56	3.45	$43.02	+6%	—	pending
Under in FC Cincinnati v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.70	Main (your slate bets)	$7.67	2.70	$13.04	+6%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
FC Cincinnati win	46%	45%	2.12	fair
New York City FC win	30%	31%	3.45	value: +6%
Draw	24%	24%	4.10	fair

across 16 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	66%	61%	1.50	fair
Under	34%	39%	2.88	value: +13%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
New York City FC win	3.00	3.22	+7.3%
Draw	3.90	3.90	0.0%
FC Cincinnati win	2.08	2.05	-1.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

TQL Stadium

Yes	66%	63%	1.44	fair
No	34%	37%	2.76	value: +3%