← Major League Soccer 2026 · Fri, Sep 4, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York City FC win in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.65 leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.40 | $18.80 | +20% | — | pending |
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.65 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 2.65 | $8.25 | +10% | — | pending |
leg 1: Under in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 leg 3: San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.82 | $19.63 | +26% | — | pending |
Draw in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.60 | Dutch cover | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.61 | Dutch cover | $17.22 | 2.61 | $27.72 | +8% | — | pending |
Under in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +15% | — | pending |
Under in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | Portfolio | $9.40 | 2.10 | $10.34 | +6% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC win | 38% | 42% | 2.65 | value: +10% |
| Nashville SC win | 35% | 31% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.66 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 45% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 55% | 2.10 | value: +15% |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 2.86 | 2.60 | -9.1% | |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.50 | -0.6% | |
| New York City FC win | 2.26 | 2.57 | +13.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Yankee Stadium |