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New York City FC v Nashville SC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Fri, Sep 4, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: New York City FC win in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.65
leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23
Chaos parlay$2.0010.40$18.80+20%—pending
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.65
Mls sim value$5.002.65$8.25+10%—pending
leg 1: Under in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10
leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09
leg 3: San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46
Chaos parlay$2.0010.82$19.63+26%—pending
Draw in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.60
Dutch cover$2.783.60$7.23——pending
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.61
Dutch cover$17.222.61$27.72+8%—pending
Under in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10
WC KO unders$10.002.10$11.00+15%—pending
Under in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10
Portfolio$9.402.10$10.34+6%—pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
New York City FC win38%42%2.65value: +10%
Nashville SC win35%31%2.94fair
Draw27%28%3.66fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Over54%45%1.82fair
Under46%55%2.10value: +15%

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Nashville SC win2.862.60-9.1%
Draw3.523.50-0.6%
New York City FC win2.262.57+13.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYankee Stadium