← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 4, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Matt Wilkinson (ERA 4.63, WHIP 1.11) · home: Nolan McLean (ERA 3.06, WHIP 1.12)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 leg 3: San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.82 | $19.63 | +26% | — | pending |
San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 62% | 1.57 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 38% | 2.66 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.52 | 2.58 | +2.3% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.50 | 1.53 | +1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| New York Mets | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | — | 10 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1490.34 | 1464.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.69 | 7.21 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.02 | 1.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.80 |