← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jameson Taillon (ERA 5.68, WHIP 1.37) · home: Daniel Lynch IV (ERA 3.06, WHIP 1.05)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 leg 3: San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.82 | $19.63 | +26% | — | pending |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +6% | +10.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 53% | 1.95 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 47% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 2.01 | 1.94 | -3.5% | |
| Kansas City Royals win | 1.76 | 1.91 | +8.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kansas City Royals | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1473.15 | 1520.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.39 | 11.40 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.02 | 1.29 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.80 |