← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Merrill Kelly (ERA 5.08, WHIP 1.48) · home: Cristian Javier (ERA 6.45, WHIP 1.63)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York City FC win in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.65 leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.40 | $18.80 | +20% | — | pending |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.23 | $12.30 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.23 | $12.30 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 55% | 1.93 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 45% | 6.74 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.97 | 1.94 | -1.8% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.66 | 1.91 | +15.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1507.81 | 1515.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.92 | -4.45 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.25 | 2.19 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.00 |