Who's on the mound matters most in baseball. Bet an MLB moneyline side when its probable starter's season ERA is at least 1.00 better than the opponent's (mlb.starter_era_gap, signed to the bet side) AND our Elo sees any positive edge at the best live price. First strategy to use contest-scoped context metrics.
baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-04 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | $10.00 | 1.77 | $7.70 | +2% | +7.70 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.44 | $10.00 | 1.44 | $4.38 | +1% | +4.38 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 | $10.00 | 1.50 | $5.02 | +7% | +5.02 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 |
| -10.00 |
| lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48 | $10.00 | 1.48 | $4.80 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.47 | $10.00 | 1.47 | $4.70 | +5% | +4.70 | won |
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | $10.00 | 2.00 | $10.00 | +0% | +10.00 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.75 | $10.00 | 1.75 | $7.50 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +27% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.87 | $10.00 | 1.87 | $8.70 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in Arizona Diamondbacks v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +1% | +7.03 | won |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 | $10.00 | 1.50 | $5.02 | +1% | +5.02 | won |
Seattle Mariners win in Colorado Rockies v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.58 | $10.00 | 2.58 | $15.80 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.54 | $10.00 | 1.54 | $5.40 | +3% | +5.40 | won |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.20 | +2% | +6.20 | won |
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +5% | +5.47 | won |
New York Yankees win in Minnesota Twins v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | $10.00 | 1.74 | $7.40 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | $10.00 | 1.77 | $7.70 | +1% | +7.70 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 | $10.00 | 1.60 | $5.96 | +2% | +5.96 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +13% | +6.21 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.40 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 | $10.00 | 1.90 | $8.96 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +14% | +8.61 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +2% | +7.32 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 | $10.00 | 1.50 | $5.02 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 | $10.00 | 1.96 | $9.60 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.32 | $10.00 | 1.32 | $3.20 | +1% | +3.20 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +2% | +7.03 | won |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +8% | +7.94 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.60 | +6% | +7.60 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | $10.00 | 2.23 | $12.30 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.63 | $10.00 | 1.63 | $6.30 | +2% | +6.30 | won |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | $10.00 | 1.77 | $7.70 | +1% | +7.70 | won |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.53 | $10.00 | 1.53 | $5.30 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +6% | +6.21 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +4% | +10.51 | won |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 | $10.00 | 1.60 | $5.96 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +3% | +5.71 | won |
Baltimore Orioles win in Colorado Rockies v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | $10.00 | 1.74 | $7.40 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +4% | +12.36 | won |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.66 | $10.00 | 1.66 | $6.60 | +4% | +6.60 | won |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.20 | +2% | +6.20 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.50 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Colorado Rockies v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | $10.00 | 1.74 | $7.40 | +4% | +7.40 | won |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Colorado Rockies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.50 | +8% | +5.50 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +20% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Los Angeles Angels v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35 | $10.00 | 2.35 | $13.50 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | $10.00 | 1.74 | $7.40 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +5% | +5.71 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.36 | $10.00 | 2.36 | $13.60 | +1% | +13.60 | won |
Texas Rangers win in Los Angeles Angels v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.90 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Minnesota Twins v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.04 | $10.00 | 2.04 | $10.40 | +0% | +10.40 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 | $10.00 | 1.60 | $6.00 | +16% | +6.00 | won |
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +13% | +6.48 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +10% | +7.03 | won |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.66 | $10.00 | 1.66 | $6.60 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.45 | $10.00 | 1.45 | $4.50 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +5% | +5.47 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.68 | $10.00 | 1.68 | $6.80 | +5% | +6.80 | won |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.63 | $10.00 | 1.63 | $6.30 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Houston Astros v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +6% | +14.59 | won |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Colorado Rockies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +5% | +6.75 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71 | $10.00 | 2.71 | $17.10 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.69 | $10.00 | 1.69 | $6.90 | +5% | +6.90 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +3% | +5.71 | won |
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 | $10.00 | 2.19 | $11.87 | +12% | +11.87 | won |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Colorado Rockies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.50 | +6% | +6.50 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.53 | $10.00 | 1.53 | $5.30 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +0% | +6.48 | won |
Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 | $10.00 | 1.95 | $9.50 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.71 | $10.00 | 1.71 | $7.10 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Angels v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 | $10.00 | 1.52 | $5.24 | +3% | +5.24 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.00 | +7% | +7.00 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in Oakland Athletics v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.69 | $10.00 | 1.69 | $6.90 | +2% | +6.90 | won |
Kansas City Royals win in Minnesota Twins v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.60 | $10.00 | 2.60 | $16.00 | +10% | +16.00 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +0% | +12.00 | won |
Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 | $10.00 | 1.90 | $8.96 | +7% | +8.96 | won |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 | $10.00 | 1.52 | $5.24 | +9% | +5.24 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in Oakland Athletics v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | $10.00 | 1.77 | $7.70 | +11% | +7.70 | won |
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +1% | +7.03 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +4% | +8.61 | won |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.