Pitcher edge

Who's on the mound matters most in baseball. Bet an MLB moneyline side when its probable starter's season ERA is at least 1.00 better than the opponent's (mlb.starter_era_gap, signed to the bet side) AND our Elo sees any positive edge at the best live price. First strategy to use contest-scoped context metrics.

The rule, in plain words

Probabilities come from: Elo rating (strength score updated after every match; converted to a win probability).
Bets any Match winner (2-way) selection where the model's probability × best available price beats 1.00 by more than 0% — i.e. the model thinks the outcome is meaningfully more likely than the price implies.
Extra condition: starter era gap (in the bet side's favour) must be at least 1.
Stakes: flat $10 per bet.

baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-04 · same $1000 start as every other strategy

$990.00

balance (started at $1000)

-10.00

-100.0% return on money staked

0/1

bets won / settled

0 bets still pending

Every bet this strategy madelatest 2

Bet	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76	$10.00	1.76	$7.63	+1%	-10.00	lost
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76	$10.00	1.76	$7.63	+1%	—	void

"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.