← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 30, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Draw in Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.30 leg 2: Draw in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.00 | WC parlay | $5.00 | 17.20 | $81.00 | +4% | — | pending |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.30 | Dutch cover | $2.33 | 4.30 | $7.69 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.07 | Dutch cover | $17.67 | 4.07 | $54.25 | +7% | — | pending |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.30 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.30 | $16.50 | +0% | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.07 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.07 | $15.35 | +7% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC win | 53% | 50% | 1.85 | fair |
| Orlando City SC win | 24% | 26% | 4.07 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.30 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC win | 3.70 | 3.85 | +4.1% | |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.10 | +5.1% | |
| Minnesota United FC win | 1.83 | 1.80 | -1.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Allianz Field |