← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 2.45 | Dutch cover | $17.50 | 2.45 | $25.38 | +7% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati win | 39% | 44% | 2.55 | value: +12% |
| CF Montreal win | 37% | 33% | 2.66 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati win | 2.35 | 2.40 | +2.1% | |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.90 | -2.5% | |
| CF Montreal win | 2.52 | 2.61 | +3.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Saputo Stadium |