The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Atlanta United FC win
45%
39%
2.32
fair
Orlando City SC win
31%
37%
3.20
value: +18%
Draw
24%
24%
4.05
fair
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Orlando City SC win
3.00
3.00
0.0%
Draw
3.83
3.85
+0.7%
Atlanta United FC win
2.08
2.15
+3.6%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.