← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orlando City SC win in Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 3.10 | Portfolio | $4.72 | 3.10 | $9.91 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 3.20 | Dutch cover | $17.50 | 3.20 | $38.50 | +18% | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 3.20 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.20 | $11.00 | +18% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC win | 45% | 39% | 2.32 | fair |
| Orlando City SC win | 31% | 37% | 3.20 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.05 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC win | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.0% | |
| Draw | 3.83 | 3.85 | +0.7% | |
| Atlanta United FC win | 2.08 | 2.15 | +3.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |