← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: CF Montreal win in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 6.60 leg 2: Sporting Kansas City win in FC Dallas v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.75 | WC parlay | $5.00 | 44.55 | $217.75 | +11% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.33 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 5.33 | $21.65 | +12% | — | pending |
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 leg 2: Los Angeles FC win in Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.60 leg 3: Draw in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.18 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 30.82 | $59.63 | +35% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.18 | Dutch cover | $1.93 | 5.18 | $8.07 | — | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 6.60 | Dutch cover | $18.07 | 6.60 | $101.19 | +8% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.18 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.18 | $20.90 | +9% | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 6.60 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 6.60 | $28.00 | +8% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.18 | Portfolio | $1.35 | 5.18 | $5.64 | +3% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 64% | 63% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 5.33 | value: +12% |
| CF Montreal win | 16% | 16% | 6.65 | value: +9% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal win | 5.90 | 6.30 | +6.8% | |
| Draw | 4.70 | 5.00 | +6.4% | |
| Philadelphia Union win | 1.44 | 1.43 | -0.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Subaru Park |