← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Sonny Gray (ERA 2.82, WHIP 1.18) · home: Chris Bassitt (ERA 4.97, WHIP 1.58)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 leg 2: Los Angeles FC win in Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.60 leg 3: Draw in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.18 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 30.82 | $59.63 | +35% | — | pending |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 56% | 1.79 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 44% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.66 | 1.71 | +2.7% | |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.01 | 2.24 | +11.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1499.80 | 1549.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.64 | -4.45 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.40 |