← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Sep 10, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.30 leg 2: Draw in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 5.40 leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 24.34 | $46.69 | +26% | — | pending |
Under in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.30 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.30 | $13.00 | +8% | — | pending |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
FC Dallas win in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $17.50 | 4.00 | $52.50 | +17% | — | pending |
FC Dallas win in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +17% | — | pending |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +3% | — | pending |
FC Dallas win in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +17% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC win | 49% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
| FC Dallas win | 27% | 29% | 4.00 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +3% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 53% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 47% | 2.38 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas win | 3.40 | 3.25 | -4.4% | |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.0% | |
| Minnesota United FC win | 1.98 | 2.08 | +5.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Allianz Field |