← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Sep 10, 02:30 AM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.30 leg 2: Draw in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 5.40 leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 24.34 | $46.69 | +26% | — | pending |
Los Angeles FC win in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 1.43 | Steam chaser | $5.00 | 1.43 | $2.15 | — | — | pending |
Draw in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 5.40 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.40 | $22.00 | +8% | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 7.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 7.00 | $30.00 | +3% | — | pending |
Draw in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 5.30 | Portfolio | $1.00 | 5.30 | $4.30 | +1% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC win | 69% | 65% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 20% | 21.00 | value: +319% |
| New York Red Bulls win | 14% | 15% | 501.00 | value: +7277% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls win | 4.90 | 201.00 | +4002.0% | |
| Draw | 4.70 | 17.00 | +261.7% | |
| Los Angeles FC win | 1.53 | 1.01 | -34.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | BMO Stadium |