← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 10:35 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.30 leg 2: Draw in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 5.40 leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 24.34 | $46.69 | +26% | — | pending |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.96 | $9.60 | +8% | +9.60 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 50% | 1.97 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 50% | 1.96 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.86 | 1.93 | +3.9% | |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 1.73 | 1.93 | +11.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Baltimore Orioles | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1491.81 | 1500.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.93 | -0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.70 |