FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Vancouver Whitecaps win	49%	43%	1.93	fair
FC Cincinnati win	28%	33%	3.50	value: +17%
Draw	23%	24%	4.33	fair

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	70%	64%	1.37	fair
Under	30%	36%	3.30	value: +20%

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	69%	65%	1.36	fair
No	31%	35%	3.10	value: +8%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

TQL Stadium