← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Freemon
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 1.67 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 1.67 | $3.33 | +12% | +3.33 | won |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.50 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 3.50 | $12.50 | +16% | +12.50 | won |
leg 1: New York Red Bulls win in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.50 lost leg 2: Draw in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.22 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 18.99 | $89.95 | +8% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: New York Red Bulls win in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.50 lost leg 2: Draw in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.22 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 18.99 | $89.95 | +8% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: San Diego win in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Match result @ 3.20 lost leg 2: FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.00 won leg 3: Under in Austin v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 28.80 | $55.60 | +122% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.22 | Dutch cover | $2.37 | 4.22 | $7.63 | — | -2.37 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $17.63 | 4.00 | $52.89 | +33% | +52.89 | won |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.00 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +33% | +15.00 | won |
Under in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.10 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 3.10 | $21.00 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +33% | +15.00 | won |
Draw in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.22 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.22 | $16.10 | +0% | -5.00 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.00 | Portfolio | $11.67 | 4.00 | $35.01 | +15% | +35.01 | won |
No in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Both teams to score @ 3.00 | Main (your slate bets) | $7.94 | 3.00 | $15.88 | +5% | -7.94 | lost |
Under in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.95 | Main (your slate bets) | $11.66 | 2.95 | $22.74 | +7% | -11.66 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.95 | Main (your slate bets) | $25.95 | 3.95 | $76.55 | +27% | +76.55 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 52% | 43% | 1.93 | fair |
| FC Cincinnati win | 25% | 33% | 4.00 | value: +33% |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.33 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 64% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 36% | 3.30 | value: +20% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 1.90 | 1.79 | -5.3% | |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.15 | +2.5% | |
| FC Cincinnati win | 3.40 | 3.80 | +11.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Cincinnati | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1632.00 | 202.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | TQL Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 67% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| No | 33% | 35% | 3.10 | value: +8% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Over 4.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' |
| ⚽ |
| Ryan Gauld · Vancouver Whitecaps |
| 59' | 🟨 | Andrés Cubas · Vancouver Whitecaps |
| 78' | 🟨 | Brian White · Vancouver Whitecaps |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.99 |
| elo | 1545.88 | 1655.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.41 | 4.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | 1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.41 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| league points | 20.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.29 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | 1.22 |
| solidity v1 | -2.40 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.96 | 25.68 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.57 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 2.00 |