Austin v Seattle Sounders

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Seattle Sounders win	45%	43%	2.12	fair
Austin win	29%	29%	3.40	fair
Draw	26%	28%	3.70	value: +3%

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	55%	44%	1.75	fair
Under	45%	56%	2.15	value: +19%

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	58%	50%	1.62	fair
No	42%	50%	2.25	value: +13%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Q2 Stadium