← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 12:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Montero
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego win in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Match result @ 3.20 lost leg 2: FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.00 won leg 3: Under in Austin v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 28.80 | $55.60 | +122% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Austin v Seattle Sounders · Match result @ 3.75 | Dutch cover | $2.67 | 3.75 | $7.34 | — | -2.67 | lost |
Austin win in Austin v Seattle Sounders · Match result @ 3.55 | Dutch cover | $17.33 | 3.55 | $44.19 | +9% | +44.19 | won |
Under in Austin v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.25 | $12.50 | +22% | -10.00 | lost |
No in Austin v Seattle Sounders · Both teams to score @ 2.20 | Main (your slate bets) | $22.14 | 2.20 | $26.57 | +9% | -22.14 | lost |
Under in Austin v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.23 | Main (your slate bets) | $23.88 | 2.23 | $29.37 | +22% | -23.88 | lost |
Under in Austin v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 | Portfolio | $17.31 | 2.25 | $21.64 | +9% | -17.31 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders win | 45% | 42% | 2.13 | fair |
| Austin win | 28% | 31% | 3.55 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +4% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 46% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 54% | 2.27 | value: +23% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders win | 2.06 | 2.10 | +1.9% | |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.0% | |
| Austin win | 3.30 | 3.25 | -1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Austin · Davy Arnaud
Brad Stuver · Brendan Hines-Ike · Oleksandr Svatok · Guilherme Biro · Joseph Rosales · Besard Sabović · Ilie Sánchez · Jon Gallagher · Facundo Torres · Brandon Vázquez · Myrto Uzuni
Seattle Sounders · Brian Schmetzer
Andrew Thomas · Peter Kingston · Stuart Hawkins · Jackson Ragen · Nouhou Tolo · Snyder Brunell · Hassani Dotson · Jesús Ferreira · Albert Rusnák · Paul Rothrock · Daniel Musovski
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 11' | ⚽ | Ilie Sánchez · Austin |
| 26' | ⚽ | Paul Rothrock · Seattle Sounders |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jackson Ragen · Seattle Sounders |
| 60' | 🟨 | Besard Sabović · Austin |
| 86' | ⚽ | Myrto Uzuni · Austin |
| 88' | 🟨 | Myrto Uzuni · Austin |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christian Ramirez · Austin |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jackson Ragen · Seattle Sounders |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jackson Ragen · Seattle Sounders |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Austin | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 83.00 | 3643.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Q2 Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 60% | 51% | 1.62 | fair |
| No | 40% | 49% | 2.55 | value: +24% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 4.5 | 48% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3.40 |
| 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.45 |
| elo | 1413.03 | 1563.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.02 | -58.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.34 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 14.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 27.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.71 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 1.02 |
| solidity v1 | -1.80 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.28 | 27.33 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 1.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.87 |