← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 01:30 AM UTC · ref: C. Penso
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego win in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Match result @ 501.00 | Dd live | $10.00 | 501.00 | $5000.00 | +140% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: San Diego win in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Match result @ 3.20 lost leg 2: FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.00 won leg 3: Under in Austin v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 28.80 | $55.60 | +122% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | -2.50 | lost |
San Diego win in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Match result @ 3.20 | Dutch cover | $17.50 | 3.20 | $38.50 | +37% | -17.50 | lost |
San Diego win in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Match result @ 3.20 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.20 | $11.00 | +37% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.95 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.95 | $19.50 | +1% | +19.50 | won |
San Diego win in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Match result @ 3.10 | Main (your slate bets) | $23.88 | 3.10 | $50.15 | +36% | -23.88 | lost |
San Diego win in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Match result @ 3.20 | Portfolio | $17.79 | 3.20 | $39.14 | +17% | -17.79 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids win | 45% | 34% | 2.13 | fair |
| San Diego win | 31% | 43% | 3.25 | value: +39% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 66% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 34% | 2.97 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego win | 3.02 | 3.08 | +1.8% | |
| Draw | 3.83 | 3.88 | +1.4% | |
| Colorado Rapids win | 2.10 | 2.08 | -1.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
San Diego · Mikey Varas
CJ Dos Santos · Oscar Verhoeven · Christopher McVey · Manu Duah · Kieran Sargeant · Aníbal Godoy · Jeppe Tverskov · Anders Dreyer · Onni Valakari · Alex Mighten · Marcus Ingvartsen
Colorado Rapids · Matt Wells
Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen · Reggie Cannon · Rob Holding · Loïc Williams · Kosi Thompson · Hamzat Ojediran · Paxten Aaronson · Josh Atencio · Dante Sealy · Rafael Navarro · Georgi Minoungou
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 19' | 🟨 | Christopher McVey · San Diego |
| 22' | 🟨 | Loïc Williams · Colorado Rapids |
| 28' | 🟨 | Reggie Cannon · Colorado Rapids |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ian Murphy · San Diego |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rafael Navarro · Colorado Rapids |
| 84' | 🟨 | Darren Yapi · Colorado Rapids |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Morgan · San Diego |
| 90' | ⚽ | Loïc Williams · Colorado Rapids |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rapids | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 172.00 | 690.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 67% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| No | 33% | 33% | 3.00 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 52% | 1.82 |
| Under 9.5 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 4.5 | 49% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6.40 |
| 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.22 |
| elo | 1441.34 | 1534.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.29 | 1.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.49 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 25.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.13 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 1.18 |
| solidity v1 | 0.23 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.42 | 25.12 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.38 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 2.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.63 |