Colorado Rapids v San Diego

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 01:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Colorado Rapids win	45%	34%	2.12	fair
San Diego win	31%	42%	3.20	value: +35%
Draw	25%	23%	4.00	fair

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	65%	66%	1.50	fair
Under	35%	34%	2.70	fair

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	66%	67%	1.44	fair
No	34%	33%	2.80	fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)