In-play double-down: when a pending pre-match 1x2 single is TRAILING at a poll and the conditioned model posterior still shows >=8% edge at the real live price, add one $10 bet on the same side. The one in-play behavior that beat its control in the 3,454-match bayes replay (+8.1% vs +2.5%, exp #206). Placed by the inplay watcher, not the executor; graded against REAL live odds.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-07 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 501.00 | $10.00 | 501.00 | $5000.00 | +35% | -10.00 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 41.00 | $10.00 | 41.00 | $400.00 | +207% | -10.00 | lost |
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 6.00 | $10.00 | 6.00 | $50.00 | +20% | +50.00 | won |
Los Angeles Galaxy win in Los Angeles Galaxy v St. Louis City · Match result @ 51.00 | $10.00 | 51.00 | $500.00 | +56% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego win in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Match result @ 501.00 | $10.00 | 501.00 | $5000.00 | +140% | -10.00 | lost |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 301.00 | $10.00 | 301.00 | $3000.00 | +32% | -10.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.