← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Bazakos
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.80 | Portfolio | $11.88 | 2.80 | $21.38 | +10% | -11.88 | lost |
New York Red Bulls win in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.75 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 4.75 | $18.75 | +14% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: New York Red Bulls win in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.50 lost leg 2: Draw in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.22 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 18.99 | $89.95 | +8% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.70 lost leg 2: Under in New England Revolution v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 won | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 5.67 | $23.35 | +21% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: New York Red Bulls win in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.50 lost leg 2: Draw in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.22 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 18.99 | $89.95 | +8% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.70 lost leg 2: Under in New England Revolution v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 won | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 5.67 | $23.35 | +21% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.30 | Dutch cover | $2.33 | 4.30 | $7.69 | — | -2.33 | lost |
New York Red Bulls win in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.50 | Dutch cover | $17.67 | 4.50 | $61.85 | +8% | -17.67 | lost |
Under in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.70 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.70 | $17.00 | +17% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.30 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.30 | $16.50 | +3% | -5.00 | lost |
New York Red Bulls win in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.50 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.50 | $17.50 | +8% | -5.00 | lost |
No in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Both teams to score @ 2.50 | Main (your slate bets) | $14.62 | 2.50 | $21.93 | +7% | -14.62 | lost |
Under in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.67 | Main (your slate bets) | $25.95 | 2.67 | $43.34 | +16% | -25.95 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.40 | value: +6% |
| New York Red Bulls win | 22% | 24% | 4.75 | value: +14% |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 57% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 43% | 2.80 | value: +22% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls win | 4.30 | 4.33 | +0.7% | |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.15 | -3.5% | |
| Philadelphia Union win | 1.67 | 1.70 | +1.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Union | New York Red Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 567.00 | 902.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Subaru Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 63% | 58% | 1.50 | fair |
| No | 37% | 42% | 2.63 | value: +12% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 52% | 1.95 |
| Under 9.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Under 4.5 | 48% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4.80 |
| 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.84 |
| elo | 1477.34 | 1476.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.46 | 24.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.49 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| league points | 7.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 30.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 1.47 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.98 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.16 | 23.22 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.82 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.68 |