Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Philadelphia Union win	56%	52%	1.70	fair
Draw	23%	24%	4.30	value: +3%
New York Red Bulls win	21%	24%	4.50	value: +7%

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	64%	56%	1.50	fair
Under	36%	44%	2.70	value: +18%

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	63%	57%	1.50	fair
No	37%	43%	2.55	value: +9%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
New York Red Bulls win	4.30	4.35	+1.2%
Draw	4.30	4.20	-2.3%
Philadelphia Union win	1.67	1.67	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Subaru Park