New England Revolution v Toronto FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
New England Revolution win	54%	51%	1.78	fair
Draw	25%	25%	3.80	fair
Toronto FC win	21%	24%	4.50	value: +8%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	54%	52%	1.75	fair
Under	46%	48%	2.12	fair

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	56%	54%	1.70	fair
No	44%	46%	2.12	fair

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Toronto FC win	4.30	4.50	+4.7%
Draw	3.80	3.75	-1.3%
New England Revolution win	1.71	1.70	-0.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Gillette Stadium