← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Demianchuk
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.70 lost leg 2: Under in New England Revolution v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 won | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 5.67 | $23.35 | +21% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.70 lost leg 2: Under in New England Revolution v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 won | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 5.67 | $23.35 | +21% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in New England Revolution v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +3% | +11.00 | won |
Under in New England Revolution v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.08 | Main (your slate bets) | $10.24 | 2.08 | $11.06 | +3% | +11.06 | won |
Toronto FC win in New England Revolution v Toronto FC · Match result @ 4.50 | Main (your slate bets) | $6.81 | 4.50 | $23.83 | +7% | -6.81 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution win | 50% | 50% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.87 | fair |
| Toronto FC win | 24% | 24% | 4.60 | value: +11% |
across 17 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +6% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC win | 4.30 | 3.70 | -14.0% | |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.75 | -1.3% | |
| New England Revolution win | 1.71 | 1.91 | +11.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 56' | 🟨 | Matt Polster · New England Revolution |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brooklyn Raines · New England Revolution |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New England Revolution | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 171.00 | 567.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Gillette Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 56% | 53% | 1.70 | fair |
| No | 44% | 47% | 2.12 | fair |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6.00 |
| 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.25 |
| elo | 1459.93 | 1408.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.99 | -19.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.58 |
| league points | 25.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 27.34 |
| state index | 0.12 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.94 |