In-play fade-the-goal: when a goal goes in, back the CONCEDING side at the real live price if the conditioned posterior still shows >=10% edge. The bayes replay's best surviving policy (+11.7% ROI over 1,324 bets on the own-goal-corrected sample, 6/10 winning seasons vs +1.1% control). Placed by the watcher, max 2 per contest, savepoint-safe. The definitive grade is this live sample at real odds.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-07 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 41.00 | $5.00 | 41.00 | $200.00 | +207% | -5.00 | lost |
Atlanta United FC win in Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 2.20 | $5.00 | 2.20 | $6.00 | +51% | -5.00 | lost |
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 6.50 | $5.00 | 6.50 | $27.50 | +14% | -5.00 | lost |
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50 | $5.00 | 5.50 | $22.50 | +65% | -5.00 | lost |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 1.53 | $5.00 | 1.53 | $2.66 | +11% | +2.66 | won |
Real Salt Lake win in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 41.00 | $5.00 | 41.00 | $200.00 | +58% | -5.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Galaxy win in San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy · Match result @ 5.50 | $5.00 | 5.50 | $22.50 | +28% | -5.00 | lost |
Real Salt Lake win in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 7.50 | $5.00 | 7.50 | $32.50 | +92% | -5.00 | lost |
Inter Miami win in Inter Miami v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 3.40 | $5.00 | 3.40 | $12.00 | +44% | +12.00 | won |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 1.67 | $5.00 | 1.67 | $3.33 | +12% | +3.33 | won |
Inter Miami win in Inter Miami v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 5.00 | $5.00 | 5.00 | $20.00 | +93% | +20.00 | won |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.50 | $5.00 | 3.50 | $12.50 | +16% | +12.50 | won |
England win in France v England · Match result @ 2.30 | $5.00 | 2.30 | $6.50 | +60% | +6.50 | won |
England win in France v England · Match result @ 1.36 | $5.00 | 1.36 | $1.81 | +21% | +1.81 | won |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 5.50 | $5.00 | 5.50 | $22.50 | +121% | -5.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.