← FIFA World Cup 2026 · quarter finals · Sat, Jul 11, 09:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France · after extra time
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 5.50 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 5.50 | $22.50 | +121% | -5.00 | lost |
England win in Norway v England · Match result @ 1.80 | Mad game live | $285.71 | 1.80 | $228.57 | -41% | -285.71 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.00 | Mad game live | $128.57 | 4.00 | $385.71 | +84% | -128.57 | lost |
leg 1: Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 6.40 lost leg 2: Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 27.78 | $133.88 | +188% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 lost leg 2: Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 6.20 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 26.91 | $129.54 | +141% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 lost leg 2: Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 6.40 lost leg 3: Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.20 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 116.66 | $231.32 | +280% | -2.00 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | WC form edge | $10.00 | 4.34 | $33.40 | +94% | -10.00 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | Portfolio | $29.56 | 4.34 | $98.73 | +47% | -29.56 | lost |
Jude Bellingham in Norway v England · Score or assist @ 2.24 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 2.24 | $6.18 | +35% | +6.18 | won |
Draw in Norway v England · Match result @ 3.80 | Dutch cover | $2.63 | 3.80 | $7.36 | — | +7.36 | won |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | Dutch cover | $17.37 | 4.34 | $58.02 | +94% | -17.37 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | WC sim value kor | $27.63 | 4.34 | $92.28 | +94% | -27.63 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.34 | $16.70 | +94% | -5.00 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 4.34 | $33.40 | +94% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 50% | 31% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
| Norway win | 24% | 45% | 4.34 | value: +94% ⚠ |
across 40 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 74% | 1.80 | value: +33% ⚠ |
| Under | 45% | 26% | 2.29 | fair |
across 24 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 1.86 | 1.93 | +3.7% | |
| Draw | 3.59 | 3.75 | +4.5% | |
| Norway win | 4.04 | 3.80 | -6.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Norway · 4-3-3 · Stale Solbakken
Ørjan Nyland · Julian Ryerson · Kristoffer Ajer · Torbjørn Heggem · David Møller Wolfe · Martin Ødegaard · Sander Berge · Patrick Berg · Alexander Sørloth · Erling Haaland · Andreas Schjelderup
England · 4-2-3-1 · Thomas Tuchel
Jordan Pickford · Ezri Konsa · John Stones · Marc Guéhi · Nico O'Reilly · Declan Rice · Elliot Anderson · Noni Madueke · Jude Bellingham · Anthony Gordon · Harry Kane
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 36' | ⚽ | Andreas Schjelderup · Norway |
| 36' | ⚽ | Andreas Schjelderup · Norway |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · England |
| 45'+2' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · England |
| 93' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · England |
| 93' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · England |
| 117' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Ajer · Norway |
| 117' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Ajer · Norway |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norway | England |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1958.00 | 556.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| duration | EXTRA_TIME |
| final away goals | 2 |
| final home goals | 1 |
| qualified | away |
| sniped | yes |
| stage | QUARTER_FINALS |
| venue | Hard Rock Stadium |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57% | 74% | 1.69 | value: +26% ⚠ |
| No | 43% | 26% | 2.38 | fair |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.25 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 22% | 4.98 |
| Erling Haaland | 20% | 5.56 |
| Jude Bellingham | 11% | 9.41 |
| No Goal | 10% | 15.64 |
| Anthony Gordon | 9% | 11.74 |
| Noni Madueke | 9% | 11.74 |
| Alexander Sorloth | 7% | 13.41 |
| Andreas Schjelderup | 5% | 18.75 |
top 8 of 18 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 53% | 2.00 |
| Erling Haaland | 49% | 2.05 |
| Erling Braut Haaland | 46% | 2.37 |
| Ollie Watkins | 43% | 2.50 |
| Ivan Toney | 42% | 2.45 |
| Jude Bellingham | 29% | 4.10 |
| Marcus Rashford | 27% | 4.00 |
| Anthony Gordon | 26% | 4.73 |
top 8 of 47 priced players · across 9 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 62% | 1.65 |
| Erling Haaland | 55% | 1.86 |
| Jude Bellingham | 44% | 2.29 |
| Noni Madueke | 35% | 2.89 |
| Anthony Gordon | 34% | 2.98 |
| Alexander Sorloth | 30% | 3.29 |
| Martin Odegaard | 28% | 3.96 |
| Declan Rice | 25% | 4.31 |
top 8 of 22 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 17% | 5.90 |
| Erling Haaland | 14% | 7.25 |
| Jude Bellingham | 5% | 23.43 |
| Anthony Gordon | 4% | 23.43 |
| Noni Madueke | 4% | 23.43 |
| Alexander Sorloth | 2% | 46.79 |
| Andreas Schjelderup | 2% | 46.79 |
| Antonio Nusa | 2% | 46.79 |
top 8 of 9 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 3% | 31.21 |
| Harry Kane | 3% | 31.21 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Braut Haaland 1+ | 98% | 1.02 |
| Harry Kane 1+ | 98% | 1.02 |
| Jude Bellingham 1+ | 96% | 1.06 |
| Jorgen Strand Larsen 1+ | 95% | 1.05 |
| Marcus Rashford 1+ | 95% | 1.12 |
| Ivan Toney 2+ | 91% | 1.11 |
| Noni Madueke 1+ | 89% | 1.12 |
| Anthony Gordon 1+ | 87% | 1.15 |
top 8 of 44 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 41 higher-line quotes captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Braut Haaland 1+ | 85% | 1.19 |
| Harry Kane 1+ | 82% | 1.22 |
| Ivan Toney 1+ | 78% | 1.33 |
| Ollie Watkins 1+ | 77% | 1.33 |
| Jude Bellingham 1+ | 69% | 1.55 |
| Jorgen Strand Larsen 1+ | 65% | 1.65 |
| Marcus Rashford 1+ | 62% | 1.73 |
| Eberechi Eze 1+ | 61% | 1.80 |
top 8 of 44 priced players · across 2 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 15 higher-line quotes captured
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.68 |
| elo | 1854.96 | 1965.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.25 | 32.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| league points | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | 1.37 |
| solidity v1 | -0.61 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 26.97 |
| state index | 0.81 | 1.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 0.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.94 |