World Cup: back any 1x2 pick where the fixtures-sim beats the best live price by 5%+ AND the bookmakers disagree with each other by 4%+ on that price — tournament markets get confused, and confusion is where a model edge is most believable. The lower edge bar than wc_sim_value_v1 is paid for by the confusion gate.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-10 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.86 | $10.00 | 2.86 | $18.60 | +35% | — | pending |
France win in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.45 | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 3.35 | $10.00 | 3.35 | $23.50 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 3.75 | $10.00 | 3.75 | $27.50 | +14% | +27.50 | won |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 6.40 | $10.00 | 6.40 | $54.00 | +49% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.20 | $10.00 | 4.20 | $32.00 | +32% | -10.00 | lost |
Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 6.20 | $10.00 | 6.20 | $52.00 | +25% | -10.00 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | $10.00 | 4.34 | $33.40 | +94% | -10.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.