← FIFA World Cup 2026 · semi finals · Tue, Jul 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Iván Barton, El Salvador
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.88 | Mad game live | $128.24 | 2.88 | $240.45 | -17% | -128.24 | lost |
France win in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.63 | Mad game live | $140.46 | 2.63 | $228.25 | +23% | -140.46 | lost |
Kylian Mbappe in France v Spain · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 2.09 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 2.09 | $5.47 | +10% | -5.00 | lost |
Kylian Mbappe in France v Spain · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 2.09 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 2.09 | $5.47 | +10% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in France v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.98 | Portfolio | $29.77 | 1.98 | $29.17 | +13% | +29.17 | won |
Desire Doue in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.98 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 2.98 | $9.92 | +10% | -5.00 | lost |
France win in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.45 | WC form edge | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 3.35 | WC form edge | $10.00 | 3.35 | $23.50 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 3.35 | Dutch cover | $2.99 | 3.35 | $7.03 | — | -2.99 | lost |
France win in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.45 | Dutch cover | $17.01 | 2.45 | $24.66 | +10% | -17.01 | lost |
France win in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.45 | WC sim value kor | $9.63 | 2.45 | $13.96 | +10% | -9.63 | lost |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 3.35 | WC sim value kor | $8.19 | 3.35 | $19.25 | +13% | -8.19 | lost |
Under in France v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.04 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.04 | $10.40 | +31% | +10.40 | won |
France win in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.45 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 3.35 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 3.35 | $23.50 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 3.25 | Main (your slate bets) | $24.44 | 3.25 | $54.99 | +85% | -24.44 | lost |
Under in France v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.94 | Main (your slate bets) | $24.44 | 1.94 | $22.97 | +86% | +22.97 | won |
No in France v Spain · Both teams to score @ 2.10 | Main (your slate bets) | $24.44 | 2.10 | $26.88 | +87% | +26.88 | won |
Michael Olise in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.19 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 2.19 | $5.93 | +17% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Ousmane Dembele in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.19 lost leg 2: Mikel Oyarzabal in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.34 won | Soa duo parlay | $3.00 | 5.12 | $12.37 | +96% | -3.00 | lost |
Mikel Oyarzabal in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.34 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 2.34 | $6.71 | +31% | +6.71 | won |
Ousmane Dembele in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.19 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 2.19 | $5.93 | +50% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 41% | 45% | 5.25 | value: +134% |
| Spain win | 30% | 22% | 3.45 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +15% |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| France win | 59% | 1.62 |
| Spain win | 41% | 2.34 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 64% | 2.04 | value: +31% |
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.0% | |
| Draw | 3.18 | 3.18 | 0.0% | |
| France win | 2.29 | 2.43 | +6.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Spain · 4-2-3-1 · Luis de la Fuente
Unai Simón · Pedro Porro · Pau Cubarsí · Aymeric Laporte · Marc Cucurella · Rodri · Fabián Ruiz · Lamine Yamal · Dani Olmo · Alex Baena · Mikel Oyarzabal
France · 4-2-3-1 · Didier Deschamps
Mike Maignan · Jules Koundé · Dayot Upamecano · William Saliba · Lucas Digne · Aurélien Tchouaméni · Adrien Rabiot · Ousmane Dembélé · Michael Olise · Bradley Barcola · Kylian Mbappé
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 9' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · France |
| 9' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · France |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Mikel Oyarzabal · Spain |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Mikel Oyarzabal · Spain |
| 31' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Spain |
| 31' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Spain |
| 58' | ⚽ | Pedro Porro · Spain |
| 58' | ⚽ | Pedro Porro · Spain |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · France |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | France | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 5126.00 | 894.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | away |
| sniped | yes |
| stage | SEMI_FINALS |
| venue | Dallas Stadium |
| Over | 50% | 36% | 2.00 | fair |
across 25 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56% | 44% | 1.72 | fair |
| No | 44% | 56% | 2.30 | value: +29% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over 9.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 24% | 4.73 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 13% | 7.85 |
| Lamine Yamal | 12% | 9.41 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 11% | 9.41 |
| Michael Olise | 9% | 11.74 |
| No Goal | 8% | 18.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 48% | 2.73 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 33% | 3.40 |
| Borja Iglesias | 30% | 4.20 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 29% | 3.80 |
| Lamine Yamal | 29% | 5.56 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 29% | 3.96 |
| Marcus Thuram | 29% | 3.80 |
| Ferran Torres Garcia | 27% | 4.00 |
top 8 of 50 priced players · across 9 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 61% | 1.90 |
| Lamine Yamal | 45% | 2.98 |
| Michael Olise | 44% | 2.66 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 43% | 2.81 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 41% | 2.59 |
| Desire Doue | 34% | 4.31 |
| Dani Olmo | 29% | 4.73 |
| Pedri | 21% | 6.74 |
top 8 of 22 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 13% | 10.45 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 7% | 18.75 |
| Mikel Merino | 6% | 15.64 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 5% | 23.43 |
| Michael Olise | 5% | 31.21 |
| Lamine Yamal | 4% | 46.79 |
| Desire Doue | 4% | 31.21 |
| Ferran Torres | 3% | 31.21 |
top 8 of 11 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 3% | 31.21 |
| Kylian Mbappe | 3% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe 1+ | 99% | 1.02 |
| Lamine Yamal 1+ | 98% | 1.04 |
| Marcus Thuram 1+ | 95% | 1.05 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal 1+ | 95% | 1.07 |
| Ousmane Dembele 1+ | 95% | 1.07 |
| Michael Olise 1+ | 95% | 1.08 |
| Desire Doue 1+ | 94% | 1.08 |
| Borja Iglesias 1+ | 93% | 1.07 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 2 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 21 higher-line quotes captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe 1+ | 87% | 1.17 |
| Lamine Yamal 1+ | 78% | 1.36 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta 1+ | 71% | 1.44 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal 1+ | 67% | 1.55 |
| Marcus Thuram 1+ | 66% | 1.52 |
| Ousmane Dembele 1+ | 64% | 1.70 |
| Ferran Torres Garcia 1+ | 63% | 1.73 |
| Borja Iglesias 1+ | 61% | 1.94 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 2 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 16 higher-line quotes captured
| 6.00 |
| 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.58 |
| elo | 2058.67 | 2068.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.55 | 29.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.82 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 26.80 |
| state index | 2.18 | 2.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |