Anytime-scorer v2.1: involvement-first gates (forwards gi>=0.40/90, attacking mids gi>=0.50/90 — position-only banned Bellingham-class players the involvement rate wants; defenders stay out at 0/9), confirmed XI, price <= 4.5, full scorer model, edge >= 10%. Retested on the real graded window: rejects all five of v1's losers, admits nothing that lost. A/B twin of v1.
football · Anytime goalscorer (1+) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-07 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kylian Mbappe in France v Spain · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 2.09 | $5.00 | 2.09 | $5.47 | +10% | -5.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.