Tom's both-teams structure: when EACH side of one match has a qualifying prop_soa_v1 player, parlay the pair ($3). Mildly negatively correlated legs (one side dominating starves the other) — the trial measures whether the price makes up for it.
football · parlay · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-07 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Jude Bellingham in England v Argentina · Score or assist @ 2.66 lost leg 2: Lautaro Martinez in England v Argentina · Score or assist @ 3.18 won | $3.00 | 8.45 | $22.34 | +188% | -3.00 | lost |
leg 1: Ousmane Dembele in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.19 lost leg 2: Mikel Oyarzabal in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.34 won | $3.00 | 5.12 | $12.37 | +96% | -3.00 | lost |
leg 1: Achraf Hakimi in France v Morocco · Score or assist @ 3.40 lost leg 2: Ousmane Dembele in France v Morocco · Score or assist @ 2.01 won | $3.00 | 6.83 | $17.50 | +84% | -3.00 | lost |
leg 1: Breel Embolo in Switzerland v Colombia · Score or assist @ 2.89 lost leg 2: Daniel Munoz in Switzerland v Colombia · Score or assist @ 4.31 lost | $3.00 | 12.48 | $34.43 | +209% | -3.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.