← FIFA World Cup 2026 · semi finals · Wed, Jul 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Ismail Elfath, USA
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 301.00 | Dd live | $10.00 | 301.00 | $3000.00 | +32% | -10.00 | lost |
Argentina win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 3.10 | Mad game live | $108.81 | 3.10 | $228.50 | -16% | +228.50 | won |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.63 | Mad game live | $128.50 | 2.63 | $208.81 | +28% | -128.50 | lost |
Reece James in England v Argentina · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 23.00 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 23.00 | $110.00 | +10% | -5.00 | lost |
Elliot Anderson in England v Argentina · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 15.64 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 15.64 | $73.19 | +13% | -5.00 | lost |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.86 | WC form edge | $10.00 | 2.86 | $18.60 | +35% | -10.00 | lost |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.86 | WC sim value kor | $25.88 | 2.86 | $48.14 | +35% | -25.88 | lost |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.86 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 2.86 | $18.60 | +35% | -10.00 | lost |
Yes in England v Argentina · Both teams to score @ 1.95 | Main (your slate bets) | $17.91 | 1.95 | $17.01 | +6% | +17.01 | won |
Over in England v Argentina · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 | Main (your slate bets) | $23.30 | 2.20 | $27.96 | +31% | +27.96 | won |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.69 | Main (your slate bets) | $23.30 | 2.69 | $39.38 | +75% | -23.30 | lost |
Over in England v Argentina · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.46 | Portfolio | $26.62 | 2.46 | $38.87 | +19% | +38.87 | won |
leg 1: Jude Bellingham in England v Argentina · Score or assist @ 2.66 lost leg 2: Lautaro Martinez in England v Argentina · Score or assist @ 3.18 won | Soa duo parlay | $3.00 | 8.45 | $22.34 | +188% | -3.00 | lost |
Lautaro Martinez in England v Argentina · Score or assist @ 3.18 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 3.18 | $10.89 | +69% | +10.89 | won |
Jude Bellingham in England v Argentina · Score or assist @ 2.66 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 2.66 | $8.29 | +70% | -5.00 | lost |
Lionel Messi in England v Argentina · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 2.34 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 2.34 | $6.71 | +17% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in England v Argentina · Match result @ 3.10 | Dutch cover | $3.23 | 3.10 | $6.78 | — | -3.23 | lost |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.78 | Dutch cover | $16.77 | 2.78 | $29.85 | +31% | -16.77 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 36% | 47% | 2.86 | value: +34% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.13 | fair |
| Argentina win | 31% | 25% | 3.66 | fair |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| England win | 54% | 1.76 |
| Argentina win | 46% | 2.09 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 44% | 1.69 |
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 3.08 | 3.00 | -2.3% | |
| Draw | 2.98 | 2.90 | -2.8% | |
| England win | 2.59 | 2.70 | +4.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
England · 4-2-3-1 · Thomas Tuchel
Jordan Pickford · Reece James · John Stones · Marc Guéhi · Djed Spence · Declan Rice · Elliot Anderson · Morgan Rogers · Jude Bellingham · Anthony Gordon · Harry Kane
Argentina · 4-1-4-1 · Lionel Scaloni
Emiliano Martínez · Nahuel Molina · Cristian Romero · Lisandro Martínez · Nicolás Tagliafico · Leandro Paredes · Giuliano Simeone · Enzo Fernández · Alexis Mac Allister · Julián Alvarez · Lionel Messi
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 37' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · England |
| 42' | 🟨 | Lisandro Martínez · Argentina |
| 51' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Argentina |
| 55' | ⚽ | Anthony Gordon · England |
| 85' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Argentina |
| 90'+2' | ⚽ | Lautaro Martínez · Argentina |
| 90'+4' | 🟨 | Rodrigo De Paul · Argentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | England | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.61 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 560.00 | 2905.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | away |
| sniped | yes |
| stage | SEMI_FINALS |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |
| fair |
| Over | 41% | 56% | 2.52 | value: +42% ⚠ |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 51% | 40% | 2.00 | fair |
| Yes | 49% | 60% | 2.01 | value: +21% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 51% | 2.00 |
| Under 3.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 19% | 6.29 |
| Harry Kane | 19% | 5.56 |
| Jude Bellingham | 11% | 10.45 |
| Julian Alvarez | 11% | 9.41 |
| No Goal | 10% | 13.41 |
| Anthony Gordon | 6% | 15.64 |
| Enzo Fernandez | 5% | 18.75 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 4% | 23.43 |
top 8 of 21 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 40% | 23.43 |
| Harry Kane | 39% | 13.41 |
| Ollie Watkins | 33% | 3.20 |
| Ivan Toney | 32% | 3.25 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 26% | 8.56 |
| Jude Bellingham | 25% | 46.79 |
| Julian Alvarez | 25% | 11.74 |
| Jose Manuel Alberto Lopez | 24% | 4.60 |
top 8 of 48 priced players · across 9 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 53% | 3.96 |
| Harry Kane | 43% | 15.64 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 34% | 7.25 |
| Jude Bellingham | 33% | 46.79 |
| Julian Alvarez | 32% | 5.56 |
| Enzo Fernandez | 20% | 8.56 |
| Declan Rice | 19% | 18.75 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 18% | 9.41 |
top 8 of 21 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 10% | 15.64 |
| Lionel Messi | 9% | 31.21 |
| Jude Bellingham | 4% | 23.43 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 4% | 31.21 |
| Enzo Fernandez | 4% | 46.79 |
| Julian Alvarez | 4% | 46.79 |
| Morgan Rogers | 3% | 46.79 |
| Anthony Gordon | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 2% | 46.79 |
| Lionel Messi | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi 1+ | 98% | 1.02 |
| Harry Kane 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Ivan Toney 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Julian Alvarez 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Ollie Watkins 1+ | 94% | 1.06 |
| Jose Manuel Alberto Lopez 1+ | 93% | 1.07 |
| Jude Bellingham 1+ | 93% | 1.10 |
| Lautaro Martinez 1+ | 87% | 1.20 |
top 8 of 44 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 24 higher-line quotes captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi 1+ | 82% | 1.22 |
| Harry Kane 1+ | 79% | 1.29 |
| Ivan Toney 1+ | 68% | 1.53 |
| Ollie Watkins 1+ | 68% | 1.50 |
| Jude Bellingham 1+ | 67% | 1.64 |
| Jose Manuel Alberto Lopez 1+ | 66% | 1.67 |
| Lautaro Martinez 1+ | 60% | 1.94 |
| Julian Alvarez 1+ | 60% | 1.71 |
top 8 of 44 priced players · across 2 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 20 higher-line quotes captured
| 6.00 |
| 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.97 |
| elo | 1969.89 | 2056.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.28 | -4.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | 1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| league points | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 90.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | 1.98 |
| solidity v1 | 1.06 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 30.32 |
| state index | 1.44 | 1.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 0.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 2.31 |