World Cup: back any 1x2 selection where the Poisson fixtures-sim beats the best live price by 8%. Caveat honored: the sim runs hot on tournament data, hence the high bar. [2026-07-07: gap-filter gate mandatory — naked longshot gaps went 8W-49L in the cup retro and the gf twin vetoed them all.]
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.02 | $10.00 | 5.02 | $40.20 | +19% | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 | $10.00 | 6.00 | $50.00 | +17% | — | pending |
Draw in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.20 | $10.00 | 5.20 | $42.00 | +13% | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 | $10.00 | 6.80 | $58.00 | +46% | — | pending |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.86 | $10.00 | 2.86 | $18.60 | +35% | -10.00 | lost |
France win in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.45 | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 3.35 | $10.00 | 3.35 | $23.50 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 3.70 | $10.00 | 3.70 | $27.00 | +12% | +27.00 | won |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 5.90 | $10.00 | 5.90 | $49.03 | +37% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.10 | $10.00 | 4.10 | $31.00 | +29% | -10.00 | lost |
Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 5.63 | $10.00 | 5.63 | $46.30 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | $10.00 | 4.34 | $33.40 | +94% | -10.00 | lost |
Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.65 | $10.00 | 3.65 | $26.50 | +56% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.18 | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.80 | +8% | +21.80 | won |
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | $10.00 | 5.00 | $40.00 | +48% | -10.00 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | $10.00 | 10.00 | $90.00 | +95% | -10.00 | lost |
Portugal win in Portugal v Spain · Match result @ 4.10 | $10.00 | 4.10 | $31.00 | +41% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Portugal v Spain · Match result @ 3.84 | $10.00 | 3.84 | $28.40 | +37% | -10.00 | lost |
United States win in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 2.78 | $10.00 | 2.78 | $17.80 | +45% | -10.00 | lost |
Paraguay win in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 25.12 | $10.00 | 25.12 | $241.20 | +484% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 7.86 | $10.00 | 7.86 | $68.60 | +156% | -10.00 | lost |
Paraguay win in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 25.12 | $10.00 | 25.12 | $241.20 | +484% | — | void |
Draw in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 7.86 | $10.00 | 7.86 | $68.60 | +156% | — | void |
Mexico win in Mexico v England · Match result @ 3.30 | $10.00 | 3.30 | $23.00 | +127% | -10.00 | lost |
Brazil win in Brazil v Norway · Match result @ 1.92 | $10.00 | 1.92 | $9.20 | +77% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Colombia v Ghana · Match result @ 4.60 | $10.00 | 4.60 | $36.00 | +183% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Australia v Egypt · Match result @ 3.04 | $10.00 | 3.04 | $20.40 | +49% | +20.40 | won |
Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 9.40 | $10.00 | 9.40 | $84.00 | +349% | +84.00 | won |
Cape Verde Islands win in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 27.00 | $10.00 | 27.00 | $260.00 | +158% | -10.00 | lost |
Canada win in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 5.70 | $10.00 | 5.70 | $47.00 | +106% | -10.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.