← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 16 · Sun, Jul 5, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Ismail Elfath, USA
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over in Brazil v Norway · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.80 | Portfolio | $38.50 | 1.80 | $30.80 | +12% | +30.80 | won |
leg 1: Brazil win in Brazil v Norway · Match result @ 1.92 lost leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 3: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.43 | $10.86 | +131% | -2.00 | lost |
Brazil win in Brazil v Norway · Match result @ 1.92 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 1.92 | $9.20 | +77% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil win | 52% | 63% | 1.92 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.85 | fair |
| Norway win | 22% | 16% | 5.02 | fair |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil win | 66% | 1.46 |
| Norway win | 34% | 2.81 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 71% | 1.80 | value: +27% ⚠ |
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway win | 4.51 | 4.63 | +2.5% | |
| Draw | 3.66 | 3.70 | +1.2% | |
| Brazil win | 1.79 | 1.79 | -0.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Brazil · 4-4-2 · Carlo Ancelotti
Alisson · Danilo · Marquinhos · Gabriel Magalhães · Douglas Santos · Rayan · Bruno Guimarães · Casemiro · Gabriel Martinelli · Matheus Cunha · Vinícius Júnior
Norway · 4-3-3 · Stale Solbakken
Ørjan Nyland · Julian Ryerson · Kristoffer Ajer · Torbjørn Heggem · David Møller Wolfe · Martin Ødegaard · Sander Berge · Patrick Berg · Alexander Sørloth · Erling Haaland · Antonio Nusa
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 79' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Norway |
| 90' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Norway |
| 90'+6' | 🟨 | Neymar · Brazil |
| 90'+10' | ⚽ (pen) | Neymar · Brazil |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brazil | Norway |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 430.00 | 1952.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | away |
| stage | LAST_16 |
| venue | MetLife Stadium |
| Under | 45% | 29% | 2.29 | fair |
across 23 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58% | 66% | 1.67 | value: +10% |
| No | 42% | 34% | 2.38 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 52% | 1.84 |
| Under 8.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 6 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.23 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 54% | 1.86 |
| Vinicius Junior | 50% | 2.01 |
| Matheus Cunha | 34% | 2.98 |
| Casemiro | 18% | 5.56 |
| Antonio Nusa | 16% | 6.29 |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 15% | 6.74 |
| Martin Odegaard | 14% | 7.25 |
| Marquinhos | 12% | 8.56 |
top 8 of 12 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vinicius Junior | 60% | 1.67 |
| Erling Haaland | 55% | 1.83 |
| Matheus Cunha | 46% | 2.19 |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 32% | 3.08 |
| Martin Odegaard | 31% | 3.18 |
| Antonio Nusa | 27% | 3.66 |
| Casemiro | 27% | 3.66 |
| Fredrik Aursnes | 24% | 4.13 |
top 8 of 12 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 20% | 4.98 |
| Vinicius Junior | 16% | 6.29 |
| Matheus Cunha | 7% | 13.41 |
| Antonio Nusa | 5% | 18.75 |
| Martin Odegaard | 4% | 23.43 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vinicius Junior | 9% | 11.74 |
| Erling Haaland | 3% | 31.21 |
| Matheus Cunha | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| 6.00 |
| 8.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | — |
| elo | 1999.27 | 1842.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.45 | 6.34 |
| eye test v1 | 1.69 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 50.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.80 | 84.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 49.75 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 5.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | 0.91 |
| solidity v1 | 1.39 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.75 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 29.24 | 27.55 |
| state index | 1.92 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.72 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.26 | 2.11 |