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New York Yankees 1–6 Minnesota Twins

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 05:35 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Joe Ryan (ERA 3.61, WHIP 1.08) · home: Ryan Weathers (ERA 4.08, WHIP 1.21)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73
Portfolio$20.531.73$15.04+6%-20.53lost
leg 1: Brazil win in Brazil v Norway · Match result @ 1.92 lost
leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost
leg 3: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost
Chaos parlay$2.006.43$10.86+131%-2.00lost
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73
Elo value MLB$10.001.73$7.32+18%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
New York Yankees win54%1.73
Minnesota Twins win46%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Minnesota Twins1001220006
New York Yankees0000000011

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNew York YankeesMinnesota Twins
congestion 21d19.0018.00
elo1545.531465.40
elo momentum (last 5)-19.258.61
matches since win1.000.00
rest days1.001.00
runs against avg (last 10)5.805.60
runs for avg (last 10)3.005.30