← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Joe Ryan (ERA 3.61, WHIP 1.08) · home: Ryan Weathers (ERA 4.08, WHIP 1.21)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Portfolio | $20.53 | 1.73 | $15.04 | +6% | -20.53 | lost |
leg 1: Brazil win in Brazil v Norway · Match result @ 1.92 lost leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 3: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.43 | $10.86 | +131% | -2.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 54% | 1.73 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1545.53 | 1465.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.25 | 8.61 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.30 |