← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 07:30 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Casey Mize (ERA 2.63, WHIP 0.97) · home: Cal Quantrill (ERA 3.31, WHIP 1.22)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Brazil win in Brazil v Norway · Match result @ 1.92 lost leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 3: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.43 | $10.86 | +131% | -2.00 | lost |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 51% | 1.83 |
| Texas Rangers win | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1504.70 | 1490.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.41 | 15.91 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.10 |