← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Sat, Jul 4, 01:30 AM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over in Colombia v Ghana · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 | Predict match | $10.00 | 2.18 | $11.80 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 9.40 won leg 2: Draw in Colombia v Ghana · Match result @ 4.60 lost leg 3: Canada win in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 5.70 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 246.47 | $490.94 | +2513% | -2.00 | lost |
Under in Colombia v Ghana · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.78 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 1.78 | $7.80 | +75% | +7.80 | won |
Draw in Colombia v Ghana · Match result @ 4.60 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.60 | $18.00 | +183% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Colombia v Ghana · Match result @ 4.60 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 4.60 | $36.00 | +183% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in Colombia v Ghana · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.67 won leg 2: Under in Australia v Egypt · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.44 won leg 3: Over in Switzerland v Algeria · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 lost | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 5.29 | $21.45 | +323% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Colombia v Ghana · Match result @ 4.37 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.55 | 4.37 | $69.25 | +151% | -20.55 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia win | 66% | 45% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 36% | 4.61 | value: +66% |
| Ghana win | 11% | 19% | 10.00 | value: +92% |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colombia win | 80% | 1.22 |
| Ghana win | 20% | 4.73 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 72% | 1.84 | value: +32% ⚠ |
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghana win | 8.56 | 8.47 | -1.0% | |
| Draw | 4.31 | 4.33 | +0.5% | |
| Colombia win | 1.42 | 1.41 | -0.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Ghana · 4-1-4-1 · Carlos Queiroz
Lawrence Ati Zigi · Marvin Senaya · Derrick Luckassen · Jerome Opoku · Gideon Mensah · Thomas Partey · Iñaki Williams · Caleb Yirenkyi · Kwasi Sibo · Antoine Semenyo · Jordan Ayew
Colombia · 4-3-3 · Nestor Lorenzo
Camilo Vargas · Daniel Muñoz · Davinson Sánchez · Jhon Lucumí · Johan Mojica · Gustavo Puerta · Jefferson Lerma · Jhon Arias · James Rodríguez · Jhon Córdoba · Luis Díaz
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 12' | 🟨 | Jhon Arias · Colombia |
| 14' | ⚽ | Jhon Arias · Colombia |
| 49' | 🟨 | Caleb Yirenkyi · Ghana |
| 66' | 🟨 | Fatawu Issahaku · Ghana |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu · Ghana |
| 78' | 🟨 | Richard Ríos · Colombia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colombia | Ghana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1464.00 | 94.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1969.05 | 1649.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.60 | 18.76 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | home |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | Arrowhead Stadium |
| Over | 45% | 28% | 2.18 | fair |
across 22 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 59% | 63% | 1.62 | fair |
| Yes | 41% | 37% | 2.38 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 | 50% | 1.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Diaz | 37% | 2.73 |
| Luis Suarez | 35% | 2.89 |
| James Rodriguez | 24% | 4.13 |
| Daniel Munoz | 16% | 6.29 |
| Antoine Semenyo | 14% | 7.25 |
| Jordan Ayew | 13% | 7.85 |
| Jefferson Lerma | 10% | 10.45 |
| Caleb Yirenkyi | 6% | 15.64 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Diaz | 55% | 1.83 |
| James Rodriguez | 45% | 2.24 |
| Luis Suarez | 45% | 2.24 |
| Daniel Munoz | 26% | 3.80 |
| Antoine Semenyo | 22% | 4.51 |
| Jefferson Lerma | 22% | 4.51 |
| Jordan Ayew | 16% | 6.29 |
| Caleb Yirenkyi | 11% | 9.41 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Diaz | 10% | 10.45 |
| Luis Suarez | 9% | 11.74 |
| James Rodriguez | 4% | 23.43 |
| Antoine Semenyo | 2% | 46.79 |
| Daniel Munoz | 2% | 46.79 |
| Jordan Ayew | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Diaz | 2% | 46.79 |
| Luis Suarez | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| eye test v1 |
| 0.98 |
| -1.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.48 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.80 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 32.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 81.67 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 35.33 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.19 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -0.84 |
| solidity v1 | 1.86 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.33 |
| squad age | 30.84 | 28.16 |
| state index | 1.36 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.71 |