← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Fri, Jul 3, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: Y. Perez
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in Colombia v Ghana · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.67 won leg 2: Under in Australia v Egypt · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.44 won leg 3: Over in Switzerland v Algeria · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 lost | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 5.29 | $21.45 | +323% | -5.00 | lost |
Switzerland win in Switzerland v Algeria · Match result @ 2.02 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.55 | 2.02 | $20.96 | +70% | +20.96 | won |
Over in Switzerland v Algeria · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.55 | 2.20 | $24.66 | +92% | -20.55 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win | 48% | 65% | 2.07 | value: +35% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 21% | 3.55 | fair |
| Algeria win | 22% | 14% | 4.67 | fair |
across 36 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 31% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 69% | 2.28 | value: +56% ⚠ |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria win | 4.38 | 4.33 | -1.1% | |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.21 | -2.6% | |
| Switzerland win | 2.00 | 1.99 | -0.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 10' | ⚽ | Breel Embolo · Switzerland |
| 36' | 🟨 | Farès Chaïbi · Algeria |
| 46' | ⚽ | Dan Ndoye · Switzerland |
| 72' | 🟨 | Hicham Boudaoui · Algeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Switzerland | Algeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1797.00 | 883.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | — |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | home |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | BC Place |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 51% | 38% | 1.87 | fair |
| Yes | 49% | 62% | 1.95 | value: +22% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9 | 50% | 1.92 |
| Over 9 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | — |
| elo | 1879.65 | 1831.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.06 | -2.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.12 | 60.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.51 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 28.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 91.33 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | 1.37 |
| solidity v1 | 1.05 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.88 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| squad age | 29.44 | 28.33 |
| state index | 1.72 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 1.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.27 |