← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Fri, Jul 3, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Tejera, Uruguay · after extra time · pens 2–4
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under in Australia v Egypt · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.49 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 1.49 | $4.90 | +40% | +4.90 | won |
Draw in Australia v Egypt · Match result @ 3.04 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 3.04 | $20.40 | +49% | +20.40 | won |
leg 1: Under in Colombia v Ghana · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.67 won leg 2: Under in Australia v Egypt · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.44 won leg 3: Over in Switzerland v Algeria · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 lost | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 5.29 | $21.45 | +323% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt win | 39% | 26% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 35% | 3.04 | value: +7% |
| Australia win | 27% | 38% | 3.90 | value: +49% |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 66% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 34% | 2.92 | fair |
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt win | 2.34 | 2.37 | +1.2% | |
| Draw | 2.81 | 2.89 | +2.8% | |
| Australia win | 3.52 | 3.63 | +3.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 13' | ⚽ | Emam Ashour · Egypt |
| 55' | ⚽ (og) | Mohamed Hany · Australia |
| 105' | 🟨 | Haissem Hassan · Egypt |
| 120' | 🟨 | Yasser Ibrahim · Egypt |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Mahmoud Saber · Egypt |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Jackson Irvine · Australia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Ramy Rabia · Egypt |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Awer Mabil · Australia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Mohamed Salah · Egypt |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Hossam Abdelmaguid · Egypt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Australia | Egypt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 670.00 | 32.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1815.83 | 1794.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.87 | 28.30 |
| eye test v1 |
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 5 |
| final home goals | 3 |
| qualified | away |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | AT&T Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| No | 56% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Yes | 44% | 44% | 2.19 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 | 50% | 1.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Yasser El Hanafi | 76% | 1.31 |
| Hamdi Fathi | 10% | 10.45 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf | 10% | 10.45 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | 30% | 3.29 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf | 24% | 4.13 |
| Omar Marmoush | 23% | 4.31 |
| Nestory Irankunda | 21% | 4.73 |
| Cristian Volpato | 18% | 5.56 |
| Conor Metcalfe | 12% | 8.56 |
| Jackson Irvine | 11% | 9.41 |
| Yasser El Hanafi | 11% | 9.41 |
top 8 of 16 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | 44% | 2.29 |
| Omar Marmoush | 36% | 2.81 |
| Nestory Irankunda | 31% | 3.18 |
| Cristian Volpato | 28% | 3.52 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf | 25% | 3.96 |
| Conor Metcalfe | 24% | 4.13 |
| Jackson Irvine | 20% | 4.98 |
| Yasser El Hanafi | 17% | 5.90 |
top 8 of 15 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Omar Marmoush | 35% | 2.89 |
| Eman Ashour | 12% | 8.56 |
| Mohamed Salah | 4% | 23.43 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf | 4% | 23.43 |
| Nestory Irankunda | 4% | 23.43 |
| Conor Metcalfe | 2% | 46.79 |
| Cristian Volpato | 2% | 46.79 |
| Jackson Irvine | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| -0.56 |
| 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 37.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.26 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.75 |
| league points | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.67 | 82.75 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.67 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.67 | 6.63 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.75 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.25 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.67 | 4.50 |
| squad age | 25.80 | 29.85 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.26 |