← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Fri, Jul 3, 10:00 PM UTC · ref: Drew Fischer, Canada · after extra time
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 9.40 won leg 2: Draw in Colombia v Ghana · Match result @ 4.60 lost leg 3: Canada win in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 5.70 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 246.47 | $490.94 | +2513% | -2.00 | lost |
Under in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +124% | +13.80 | won |
Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 9.40 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 9.40 | $42.00 | +349% | +42.00 | won |
Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 9.40 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 9.40 | $84.00 | +349% | +84.00 | won |
Cape Verde Islands win in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 27.00 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 27.00 | $260.00 | +158% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 8.53 | Main (your slate bets) | $1.00 | 8.53 | $7.53 | +101% | +7.53 | won |
Under in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.55 | 2.20 | $24.66 | +74% | +24.66 | won |
Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 8.53 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.55 | 8.53 | $154.74 | +101% | +154.74 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 84% | 56% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 30% | 9.40 | value: +180% ⚠ |
| Cape Verde Islands win | 5% | 14% | 27.00 | value: +287% |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 92% | 1.07 |
| Cape Verde Islands win | 8% | 11.74 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 40% |
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Verde Islands win | 23.43 | 21.00 | -10.4% | |
| Draw | 8.56 | 8.50 | -0.7% | |
| Argentina win | 1.14 | 1.14 | +0.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 29' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 59' | ⚽ | Deroy Duarte · Cape Verde Islands |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kevin Pina · Cape Verde Islands |
| 92' | ⚽ | Lisandro Martínez · Argentina |
| 103' | ⚽ | Sidny Lopes Cabral · Cape Verde Islands |
| 111' | ⚽ (og) | Diney Borges · Argentina |
| 115' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Argentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Argentina | Cape Verde Islands |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2893.00 | 63.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| elo | 2073.74 | 1644.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.93 | 19.30 |
| duration | EXTRA_TIME |
| final away goals | 2 |
| final home goals | 3 |
| qualified | home |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | Hard Rock Stadium |
| 1.67 |
| fair |
| Under | 41% | 60% | 2.38 | value: +44% ⚠ |
across 20 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 68% | 58% | 1.40 | fair |
| Yes | 32% | 42% | 3.15 | value: +33% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under 8.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 70% | 1.44 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 51% | 1.97 |
| Julian Alvarez | 39% | 2.59 |
| Enzo Fernandez | 17% | 5.90 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 14% | 7.25 |
| Jamiro Monteiro | 5% | 18.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 80% | 1.25 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 60% | 1.67 |
| Julian Alvarez | 52% | 1.93 |
| Enzo Fernandez | 37% | 2.73 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 32% | 3.08 |
| Jamiro Monteiro | 10% | 10.45 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 34% | 2.98 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 14% | 7.25 |
| Julian Alvarez | 11% | 9.41 |
| Enzo Fernandez | 3% | 31.21 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 12% | 8.56 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 4% | 23.43 |
| Julian Alvarez | 3% | 31.21 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| eye test v1 |
| 0.93 |
| -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| league points | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 35.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 76.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 5.83 | 6.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.86 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.38 | -1.03 |
| solidity v1 | 2.05 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.75 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.25 |
| squad age | 29.89 | 30.91 |
| state index | 2.22 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.52 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 0.82 |