← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 16 · Sat, Jul 4, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over in Canada v Morocco · Over/Under total corners @ 1.85 | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 1.85 | $4.25 | +3% | +4.25 | won |
Over in Canada v Morocco · Over/Under total cards @ 1.70 | Main (your slate bets) | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.00 | +33% | +7.00 | won |
Stephen Eustaquio in Canada v Morocco · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 23.43 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 23.43 | $112.13 | +22% | -5.00 | lost |
Jonathan David in Canada v Morocco · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 4.73 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 4.73 | $18.67 | +52% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 3.64 | Main (your slate bets) | $10.00 | 3.64 | $26.40 | +26% | -10.00 | lost |
Canada win in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 5.70 | Portfolio | $5.00 | 5.70 | $23.50 | +96% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 9.40 won leg 2: Draw in Colombia v Ghana · Match result @ 4.60 lost leg 3: Canada win in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 5.70 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 246.47 | $490.94 | +2513% | -2.00 | lost |
Canada win in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 5.70 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.70 | $23.50 | +106% | -5.00 | lost |
Canada win in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 5.70 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 5.70 | $47.00 | +106% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco win | 54% | 22% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.64 | value: +6% |
| Canada win | 19% | 49% | 5.70 | value: +177% ⚠ |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco win | 72% | 1.34 |
| Canada win | 28% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 49% |
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco win | 1.73 | 1.78 | +2.7% | |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | -0.0% | |
| Canada win | 4.98 | 5.13 | +2.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Canada · 4-4-2 · Jesse Marsch
Maxime Crépeau · Alistair Johnston · Luc De Fougerolles · Moise Bombito · Richie Laryea · Tajon Buchanan · Niko Sigur · Stephen Eustaquio · Ali Ahmed · Jonathan David · Tani Oluwaseyi
Morocco · 4-2-3-1 · Mohamed Ouahbi
Yassine Bounou · Achraf Hakimi · Issa Diop · Redouane Halhal · Noussair Mazraoui · Ayyoub Bouaddi · Neil El Aynaoui · Brahim Díaz · Azzedine Ounahi · Bilal El Khannouss · Ismael Saibari
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 20' | 🟨 | Redouane Halhal · Morocco |
| 40' | 🟨 | Achraf Hakimi · Morocco |
| 40' | 🟨 | Richie Laryea · Canada |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jonathan David · Canada |
| 45' | 🟨 | Azzedine Ounahi · Morocco |
| 45'+6' | 🟨 | Bilal El Khannouss · Morocco |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luc de Fougerolles · Canada |
| 50' | ⚽ | Azzedine Ounahi · Morocco |
| 67' | 🟨 | Cyle Larin · Canada |
| 82' | ⚽ | Azzedine Ounahi · Morocco |
| 90'+8' | ⚽ | Soufiane Rahimi · Morocco |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Canada | Morocco |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 794.00 | 125.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| elo | 1814.20 | 1944.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.47 | 13.27 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | away |
| stage | LAST_16 |
| venue | NRG Stadium |
| 1.72 |
| fair |
| Over | 42% | 51% | 2.35 | value: +20% |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 53% | 45% | 1.87 | fair |
| Yes | 47% | 55% | 2.06 | value: +14% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under 8.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brahim Diaz | 27% | 3.66 |
| Jonathan David | 21% | 4.73 |
| Bilal El Khannouss | 18% | 5.56 |
| Cyle Larin | 18% | 5.56 |
| Achraf Hakimi | 15% | 6.74 |
| Neil El Aynaoui | 13% | 7.85 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi | 9% | 11.74 |
| Nathan Saliba | 9% | 11.74 |
top 8 of 10 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brahim Diaz | 38% | 2.66 |
| Bilal El Khannouss | 35% | 2.89 |
| Achraf Hakimi | 30% | 3.29 |
| Jonathan David | 28% | 3.52 |
| Neil El Aynaoui | 23% | 4.31 |
| Cyle Larin | 21% | 4.73 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi | 15% | 6.74 |
| Nathan Saliba | 14% | 7.25 |
top 8 of 10 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brahim Diaz | 4% | 23.43 |
| Achraf Hakimi | 2% | 46.79 |
| Bilal El Khannouss | 2% | 46.79 |
| Cyle Larin | 2% | 46.79 |
| Jonathan David | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| eye test v1 |
| 0.96 |
| 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.67 | 73.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| league points | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 4.67 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | 1.35 |
| solidity v1 | 1.46 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.13 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.46 | 26.21 |
| state index | 0.96 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 1.88 |