← Major League Soccer 2026 · Fri, Jul 17, 02:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Mendoza
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 lost leg 2: Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 won | WC parlay | $5.00 | 40.80 | $199.00 | +71% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 lost leg 2: Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 won | WC parlay | $5.00 | 40.80 | $199.00 | +71% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 lost leg 2: Under in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.06 lost leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 34.28 | $66.57 | +130% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.02 | Dutch cover | $1.99 | 5.02 | $8.00 | — | -1.99 | lost |
Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 | Dutch cover | $18.01 | 6.00 | $90.05 | +17% | +90.05 | won |
Draw in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.02 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 5.02 | $20.10 | +19% | -5.00 | lost |
Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 6.00 | $25.00 | +17% | +25.00 | won |
Draw in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.02 | WC sim value kor | $4.78 | 5.02 | $19.22 | +19% | -4.78 | lost |
Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 | WC sim value kor | $3.49 | 6.00 | $17.45 | +17% | +17.45 | won |
Under in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.06 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 3.06 | $20.60 | +44% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.02 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.02 | $20.10 | +19% | -5.00 | lost |
Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 6.00 | $25.00 | +17% | +25.00 | won |
Draw in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.02 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 5.02 | $40.20 | +19% | -10.00 | lost |
Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 6.00 | $50.00 | +17% | +50.00 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders win | 64% | 57% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 5.10 | value: +21% |
| Portland Timbers win | 17% | 20% | 6.75 | value: +33% |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 53% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 47% | 3.10 | value: +47% ⚠ |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers win | 5.53 | 5.60 | +1.3% | |
| Draw | 4.65 | 4.80 | +3.2% | |
| Seattle Sounders win | 1.46 | 1.45 | -0.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Sounders | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3637.00 | 989.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Lumen Field |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 62% | 52% | 1.55 | fair |
| No | 38% | 48% | 2.63 | value: +25% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 53% | 1.77 |
| Under 9.5 | 47% | 2.01 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 55% | 1.72 |
| Over 4.5 | 45% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7.20 |
| 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.38 |
| elo | 1592.33 | 1440.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.46 | -18.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.37 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 46.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.78 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.78 |
| league points | 24.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 27.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.40 | 1.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.39 | -1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.65 | 25.97 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 2.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 1.43 |