← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Jul 16, 10:00 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 lost leg 2: Under in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.06 lost leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 34.28 | $66.57 | +130% | -2.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 55% | 1.76 |
| New York Mets win | 45% | 2.19 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 2.09 | 2.09 | 0.0% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.67 | 1.76 | +5.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| elo | 1549.19 | 1460.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.43 | -3.06 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 4.18 | 4.18 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |