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Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Jul 16, 11:00 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80
leg 2: Under in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.06
leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65
Chaos parlay$2.0034.28$66.57+130%—pending
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65
Elo value MLB$10.001.65$6.48+9%—pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Philadelphia Phillies win55%1.73
New York Mets win45%2.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
New York Mets win2.092.090.0%
Philadelphia Phillies win1.671.73+3.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.