← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 16 · Sat, Jul 4, 09:00 PM UTC · ref: Ilgiz Tantashev, Uzbekistan
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Julio Enciso in Paraguay v France · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 9.41 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 9.41 | $42.04 | +49% | -5.00 | lost |
Paraguay win in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 25.12 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 25.12 | $241.20 | +484% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 7.86 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 7.86 | $68.60 | +156% | -10.00 | lost |
Paraguay win in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 25.12 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 25.12 | $241.20 | +484% | — | void |
Draw in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 7.86 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 7.86 | $68.60 | +156% | — | void |
Paraguay win in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 25.12 | Portfolio | $5.00 | 25.12 | $120.60 | +275% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Paraguay v France · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.35 | $13.50 | +22% | +13.50 | won |
Draw in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 7.86 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 7.86 | $34.30 | +1% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 81% | 45% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 32% | 7.86 | value: +155% ⚠ |
| Paraguay win | 5% | 23% | 25.12 | value: +476% ⚠ |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| France win | 90% | 1.09 |
| Paraguay win | 10% | 9.41 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% |
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 1.18 | 1.18 | +0.2% | |
| Draw | 7.25 | 6.95 | -4.1% | |
| Paraguay win | 18.75 | 16.25 | -13.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 19' | 🟨 | Bradley Barcola · France |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 81' | 🟨 | Manu Koné · France |
| 90'+7' | 🟨 | Michael Olise · France |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paraguay | France |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 702.00 | 5116.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 3.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | away |
| stage | LAST_16 |
| venue | Lincoln Financial Field |
| 41% |
| 1.74 |
| fair |
| Under | 42% | 59% | 2.35 | value: +39% ⚠ |
across 22 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 61% | 52% | 1.60 | fair |
| Yes | 39% | 48% | 2.50 | value: +20% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 70% | 1.44 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 44% | 2.29 |
| Michael Olise | 41% | 2.46 |
| Desire Doue | 35% | 2.89 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni | 13% | 7.85 |
| Julio Enciso | 11% | 9.41 |
| Miguel Almiron | 11% | 9.41 |
| Jules Kounde | 9% | 11.74 |
top 8 of 9 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 78% | 1.28 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 65% | 1.55 |
| Michael Olise | 59% | 1.70 |
| Desire Doue | 41% | 2.46 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni | 27% | 3.66 |
| Jules Kounde | 22% | 4.51 |
| Julio Enciso | 20% | 4.98 |
| Miguel Almiron | 17% | 5.90 |
top 8 of 9 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 29% | 3.40 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 13% | 7.85 |
| Michael Olise | 9% | 11.74 |
| Desire Doue | 6% | 15.64 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 11% | 9.41 |
| Desire Doue | 2% | 46.79 |
| Michael Olise | 2% | 46.79 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.57 |
| elo | 1775.13 | 2030.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.06 | 35.33 |
| eye test v1 | -1.45 | 1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.25 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| league points | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.75 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 31.25 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 5.02 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.18 | 1.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.09 | 1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.50 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 28.71 | 27.67 |
| state index | 0.66 | 2.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.47 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.38 | 2.05 |