← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 16 · Mon, Jul 6, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under in Portugal v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | Portfolio | $42.36 | 2.10 | $46.60 | +21% | +46.60 | won |
Under in Portugal v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +38% | +11.00 | won |
Portugal win in Portugal v Spain · Match result @ 4.10 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +41% | -5.00 | lost |
Portugal win in Portugal v Spain · Match result @ 4.10 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 4.10 | $31.00 | +41% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Portugal v Spain · Match result @ 3.84 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 3.84 | $28.40 | +37% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 49% | 30% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 36% | 3.84 | value: +37% |
| Portugal win | 24% | 34% | 4.10 | value: +40% |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 34% | 2.03 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 66% | 2.14 | value: +41% ⚠ |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 1.90 | 1.91 | +0.7% | |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.60 | +2.2% | |
| Portugal win | 3.96 | 3.94 | -0.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 89' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva · Portugal |
| 90'+1' | ⚽ | Mikel Merino · Spain |
| 90'+4' | 🟨 | Renato Veiga · Portugal |
| 90'+8' | 🟨 | Ferran Torres · Spain |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portugal | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1282.00 | 886.00 |
| congestion 21d | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | away |
| stage | LAST_16 |
| venue | AT&T Stadium |
| Outcome |
|---|
| Market says |
|---|
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 57% | 44% | 1.68 | fair |
| No | 43% | 56% | 2.30 | value: +28% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 54% | 1.76 |
| Under 8.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 2.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 41% | 2.46 |
| Lamine Yamal | 39% | 2.59 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 38% | 2.66 |
| Dani Olmo | 21% | 4.73 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 15% | 6.74 |
| Pedri | 10% | 10.45 |
| Joao Neves | 9% | 11.74 |
| Rodri | 9% | 11.74 |
top 8 of 11 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 54% | 1.86 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 54% | 1.86 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 41% | 2.46 |
| Dani Olmo | 35% | 2.89 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 28% | 3.52 |
| Pedri | 26% | 3.80 |
| Vitinha | 17% | 5.90 |
| Joao Neves | 16% | 6.29 |
top 8 of 11 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 13% | 7.85 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 10% | 10.45 |
| Lamine Yamal | 6% | 15.64 |
| Dani Olmo | 4% | 23.43 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 3% | 31.21 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 2% | 46.79 |
| Lamine Yamal | 2% | 46.79 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.60 |
| elo | 1938.28 | 2056.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.33 | 26.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.89 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.66 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 67.60 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.56 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.96 | 26.43 |
| state index | 1.58 | 2.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |