← FIFA World Cup 2026 · quarter finals · Sun, Jul 12, 01:00 AM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal · after extra time
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 3.61 | Main (your slate bets) | $6.28 | 3.61 | $16.39 | +5% | +16.39 | won |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 6.00 | Mad game live | $65.54 | 6.00 | $327.70 | +53% | -65.54 | lost |
Argentina win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 1.73 | Mad game live | $227.70 | 1.73 | $165.54 | -16% | -227.70 | lost |
Manuel Akanji in Argentina v Switzerland · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 31.21 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 31.21 | $151.07 | +17% | -5.00 | lost |
Granit Xhaka in Argentina v Switzerland · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 18.75 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 18.75 | $88.76 | +25% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 6.40 lost leg 2: Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 27.78 | $133.88 | +188% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 lost leg 2: Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 6.40 lost leg 3: Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.20 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 116.66 | $231.32 | +280% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 3.75 | WC form edge | $10.00 | 3.75 | $27.50 | +14% | +27.50 | won |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 6.40 | WC form edge | $10.00 | 6.40 | $54.00 | +49% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 3.70 | Dutch cover | $2.70 | 3.70 | $7.29 | — | +7.29 | won |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 5.90 | Dutch cover | $17.30 | 5.90 | $84.82 | +37% | -17.30 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 3.70 | WC sim value kor | $7.05 | 3.70 | $19.04 | +12% | +19.04 | won |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 5.90 | WC sim value kor | $12.16 | 5.90 | $59.62 | +37% | -12.16 | lost |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 5.90 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.90 | $24.51 | +37% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 3.70 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 3.70 | $27.00 | +12% | +27.00 | won |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 5.90 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 5.90 | $49.03 | +37% | -10.00 | lost |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 5.90 | Portfolio | $4.93 | 5.90 | $24.17 | +16% | -4.93 | lost |
Breel Embolo in Argentina v Switzerland · Score or assist @ 3.80 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 3.80 | $14.00 | +123% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 56% | 47% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 5.56 | value: +68% |
| Switzerland win | 17% | 23% | 18.75 | value: +334% |
across 40 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 52% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 48% | 2.35 | value: +13% |
across 23 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win | 5.90 | 18.75 | +217.7% | |
| Draw | 3.52 | 5.56 | +57.8% | |
| Argentina win | 1.67 | 1.25 | -25.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Argentina · 4-1-3-2 · Lionel Scaloni
Emiliano Martínez · Nahuel Molina · Cristian Romero · Lisandro Martínez · Nicolás Tagliafico · Leandro Paredes · Rodrigo De Paul · Enzo Fernández · Alexis Mac Allister · Lionel Messi · Julián Alvarez
Switzerland · 4-2-3-1 · Murat Yakin
Gregor Kobel · Denis Zakaria · Nico Elvedi · Manuel Akanji · Ricardo Rodríguez · Remo Freuler · Granit Xhaka · Djibril Sow · Fabian Rieder · Dan Ndoye · Breel Embolo
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 10' | ⚽ | Alexis Mac Allister · Argentina |
| 44' | 🟨 | Breel Embolo · Switzerland |
| 67' | ⚽ | Dan Ndoye · Switzerland |
| 72' | 🟥 | Breel Embolo · Switzerland |
| 97' | 🟨 | Thiago Almada · Argentina |
| 98' | 🟨 | Lautaro Martínez · Argentina |
| 112' | ⚽ | Julián Álvarez · Argentina |
| 114' | 🟨 | José Manuel López · Argentina |
| 120'+1' | ⚽ | Lautaro Martínez · Argentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Argentina | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2902.00 | 1806.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.95 |
| elo | 2067.50 | 1890.71 |
| duration | EXTRA_TIME |
| final away goals | 1 |
| final home goals | 3 |
| qualified | home |
| sniped | yes |
| stage | QUARTER_FINALS |
| venue | Arrowhead Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| No | 55% | 46% | 1.76 | fair |
| Yes | 45% | 54% | 2.15 | value: +15% |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 27% | 3.66 |
| No Goal | 7% | 13.41 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 51% | 2.81 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 34% | 7.85 |
| Julian Alvarez | 33% | 4.98 |
| Jose Manuel Alberto Lopez | 33% | 3.30 |
| Nicolas Paz Martinez | 25% | 4.90 |
| Breel Embolo | 22% | 5.90 |
| Giuliano Simeone | 21% | 5.50 |
| Cedric Itten | 20% | 5.75 |
top 8 of 49 priced players · across 9 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 66% | 1.52 |
| Julian Alvarez | 38% | 3.66 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 34% | 4.73 |
| Enzo Fernandez | 24% | 4.98 |
| Breel Embolo | 23% | 5.90 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 22% | 4.73 |
| Ruben Vargas | 17% | 15.64 |
| Dan Ndoye | 14% | 7.25 |
top 8 of 22 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 15% | 11.74 |
| Julian Alvarez | 7% | 15.64 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 6% | 23.43 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 4% | 46.79 |
| Breel Embolo | 3% | 31.21 |
| Enzo Fernandez | 2% | 46.79 |
| Ruben Vargas | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 4% | 46.79 |
| Julian Alvarez | 2% | 46.79 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi 1+ | 99% | 1.01 |
| Julian Alvarez 1+ | 98% | 1.02 |
| Lautaro Martinez 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Nicolas Paz Martinez 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Giuliano Simeone 1+ | 94% | 1.06 |
| Breel Embolo 1+ | 93% | 1.08 |
| Dan Ndoye 1+ | 88% | 1.14 |
| Cedric Itten 1+ | 85% | 1.17 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 34 higher-line quotes captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi 1+ | 92% | 1.09 |
| Jose Manuel Alberto Lopez 1+ | 75% | 1.40 |
| Julian Alvarez 1+ | 73% | 1.48 |
| Lautaro Martinez 1+ | 71% | 1.50 |
| Nicolas Paz Martinez 1+ | 66% | 1.55 |
| Breel Embolo 1+ | 61% | 1.70 |
| Giuliano Simeone 1+ | 61% | 1.80 |
| Cedric Itten 1+ | 57% | 1.80 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 2 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 10 higher-line quotes captured
| elo momentum (last 5) |
| 5.13 |
| 39.92 |
| eye test v1 | 1.28 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.43 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 4.38 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.85 | 1.14 |
| solidity v1 | 1.62 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.71 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 30.29 | 29.74 |
| state index | 1.87 | 1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.21 | 1.80 |