← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 16 · Mon, Jul 6, 01:00 AM UTC · ref: A. Faghani
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 8.5 in Mexico v England · Over/Under total corners @ 2.00 | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 2.00 | $5.00 | +24% | +5.00 | won |
Over 2.5 in Mexico v England · Over/Under total cards @ 1.60 | Main (your slate bets) | $10.00 | 1.60 | $6.00 | +38% | +6.00 | won |
Julian Quinones in Mexico v England · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 3.08 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 3.08 | $10.39 | +16% | +10.39 | won |
Mexico win in Mexico v England · Match result @ 3.30 | Portfolio | $30.00 | 3.30 | $69.00 | +44% | -30.00 | lost |
Under in Mexico v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.66 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 1.66 | $6.60 | +47% | -10.00 | lost |
Mexico win in Mexico v England · Match result @ 3.30 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 3.30 | $23.00 | +127% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 39% | 18% | 2.59 | fair |
| Mexico win | 31% | 53% | 3.30 | value: +75% ⚠ |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| England win | 51% | 1.86 |
| Mexico win | 49% | 1.97 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 53% |
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 2.40 | 2.45 | +2.1% | |
| Draw | 3.18 | 3.15 | -0.9% | |
| Mexico win | 2.98 | 3.10 | +3.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1' | 🟨 | Declan Rice · England |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · England |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · England |
| 42' | ⚽ | Julián Quiñones · Mexico |
| 54' | 🟥 | Jarell Quansah · England |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · England |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · England |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl Jiménez · Mexico |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jorge Sánchez · Mexico |
| 72' | 🟨 | Nico O'Reilly · England |
| 90'+8' | 🟨 | Johan Vásquez · Mexico |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mexico | England |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 735.00 | 551.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | away |
| stage | LAST_16 |
| venue | Estadio Banorte |
| 1.66 |
| fair |
| Over | 40% | 47% | 2.56 | value: +21% |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 52% | 49% | 1.87 | fair |
| Yes | 48% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 45% | 2.24 |
| Raul Jimenez | 37% | 2.73 |
| Julian Quinones | 32% | 3.08 |
| Jude Bellingham | 21% | 4.73 |
| Roberto Alvarado | 16% | 6.29 |
| Declan Rice | 13% | 7.85 |
| Luis Romo | 11% | 9.41 |
| Elliot Anderson | 10% | 10.45 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 54% | 1.86 |
| Julian Quinones | 47% | 2.14 |
| Raul Jimenez | 45% | 2.24 |
| Jude Bellingham | 40% | 2.52 |
| Roberto Alvarado | 39% | 2.59 |
| Declan Rice | 23% | 4.31 |
| Luis Romo | 22% | 4.51 |
| Elliot Anderson | 20% | 4.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 11% | 9.41 |
| Julian Quinones | 11% | 9.41 |
| Raul Jimenez | 6% | 15.64 |
| Jude Bellingham | 3% | 31.21 |
| Roberto Alvarado | 3% | 31.21 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 3% | 31.21 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| 90'+8' | 🟨 | Jordan Henderson · England |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| — |
| 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.65 |
| elo | 1910.18 | 1954.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.43 | 14.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.17 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.75 | 90.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.50 | 66.40 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 4.38 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 1.76 |
| solidity v1 | 2.05 | 1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 28.10 | 26.71 |
| state index | 1.96 | 1.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.74 |