← FIFA World Cup 2026 · third place · Sat, Jul 18, 09:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Valenzuela, Venezuela
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
England win in France v England · Match result @ 2.30 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 2.30 | $6.50 | +60% | +6.50 | won |
England win in France v England · Match result @ 1.36 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 1.36 | $1.81 | +21% | +1.81 | won |
Ivan Toney in France v England · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 4.51 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 4.51 | $17.56 | +21% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in France v England · Match result @ 3.97 | Main (your slate bets) | $14.73 | 3.97 | $43.75 | +13% | -14.73 | lost |
No in France v England · Both teams to score @ 2.62 | Main (your slate bets) | $26.22 | 2.62 | $42.48 | +41% | -26.22 | lost |
Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.62 | Main (your slate bets) | $26.22 | 2.62 | $42.48 | +51% | -26.22 | lost |
Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.85 | Portfolio | $30.25 | 2.85 | $55.96 | +23% | -30.25 | lost |
leg 1: Jude Bellingham in France v England · Score or assist @ 2.52 won leg 2: Ousmane Dembele in France v England · Score or assist @ 2.14 won | Soa duo parlay | $3.00 | 5.40 | $13.19 | +95% | +13.19 | won |
Ousmane Dembele in France v England · Score or assist @ 2.14 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 2.14 | $5.70 | +33% | +5.70 | won |
Jude Bellingham in France v England · Score or assist @ 2.52 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 2.52 | $7.61 | +47% | +7.61 | won |
Elliot Anderson in France v England · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 18.75 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 18.75 | $88.76 | +11% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 lost leg 2: Under in Spain v Argentina · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.72 won | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 4.73 | $18.65 | +47% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 won leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.21 | $16.41 | +85% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in France v England · Match result @ 4.07 | WC form edge | $10.00 | 4.07 | $30.70 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in France v England · Match result @ 4.07 | WC sim value kor | $3.52 | 4.07 | $10.81 | +8% | -3.52 | lost |
Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.75 | $17.50 | +44% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in France v England · Match result @ 4.07 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.07 | $15.35 | +8% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in France v England · Match result @ 4.07 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 4.07 | $30.70 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 51% | 52% | 1.99 | fair |
| England win | 25% | 22% | 4.13 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.20 | value: +11% |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| France win | 65% | 1.55 |
| England win | 35% | 2.81 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 48% | 1.50 | fair |
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 3.77 | 3.95 | +4.6% | |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.00 | +3.9% | |
| France win | 1.90 | 1.86 | -1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
France · 4-2-3-1 · Didier Deschamps
Mike Maignan · Malo Gusto · Ibrahima Konaté · Maxence Lacroix · Theo Hernández · Warren Zaïre-Emery · Adrien Rabiot · Michael Olise · Rayan Cherki · Désiré Doué · Kylian Mbappé
England · 4-1-4-1 · Thomas Tuchel
Dean Henderson · Jarell Quansah · Ezri Konsa · Marc Guéhi · Djed Spence · Declan Rice · Bukayo Saka · Morgan Rogers · Eberechi Eze · Marcus Rashford · Ivan Toney
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 3' | ⚽ | Declan Rice · England |
| 18' | ⚽ | Ezri Konsa · England |
| 37' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · England |
| 45'+1' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · England |
| 48' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 54' | ⚽ | Bradley Barcola · France |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Bukayo Saka · England |
| 90'+6' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé · France |
| 90'+8' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · England |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | France | England |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 5130.00 | 563.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | away |
| sniped | yes |
| stage | THIRD_PLACE |
| venue | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Garden |
| Under | 35% | 52% | 2.95 | value: +54% ⚠ |
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 66% | 50% | 1.48 | fair |
| No | 34% | 50% | 3.00 | value: +49% ⚠ |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under 8.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.30 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 24% | 4.31 |
| Harry Kane | 15% | 10.45 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 11% | 11.74 |
| Ivan Toney | 11% | 9.41 |
| Michael Olise | 9% | 11.74 |
| Jude Bellingham | 9% | 13.41 |
| Rayan Cherki | 9% | 11.74 |
| Desire Doue | 7% | 13.41 |
top 8 of 22 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 59% | 1.76 |
| Harry Kane | 43% | 3.40 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 38% | 2.90 |
| Marcus Thuram | 38% | 2.90 |
| Ollie Watkins | 37% | 31.21 |
| Ivan Toney | 37% | 4.51 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 34% | 46.79 |
| Jude Bellingham | 28% | 46.79 |
top 8 of 47 priced players · across 9 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 69% | 1.46 |
| Michael Olise | 48% | 2.14 |
| Harry Kane | 43% | 3.66 |
| Rayan Cherki | 41% | 2.46 |
| Desire Doue | 40% | 2.66 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 40% | 11.74 |
| Bradley Barcola | 37% | 3.66 |
| Ivan Toney | 37% | 2.73 |
top 8 of 27 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Adrien Rabiot | 30% | 31.21 |
| Kylian Mbappe | 19% | 5.25 |
| Warren Zaire-Emery | 13% | 46.79 |
| Harry Kane | 10% | 23.43 |
| Bradley Barcola | 7% | 31.21 |
| Ivan Toney | 6% | 15.64 |
| Rayan Cherki | 6% | 15.64 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 6% | 23.43 |
top 8 of 15 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 7% | 23.43 |
| Harry Kane | 2% | 46.79 |
| Ivan Toney | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe 1+ | 98% | 1.04 |
| Harry Kane 1+ | 97% | 1.05 |
| Marcus Thuram 1+ | 97% | 1.08 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta 1+ | 96% | 1.06 |
| Michael Olise 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Ivan Toney 1+ | 96% | 1.05 |
| Rayan Cherki 1+ | 96% | 1.05 |
| Maghnes Akliouche 1+ | 95% | 1.07 |
top 8 of 45 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 47 higher-line quotes captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe 1+ | 88% | 1.16 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta 1+ | 76% | 1.44 |
| Harry Kane 1+ | 76% | 1.40 |
| Marcus Thuram 1+ | 73% | 1.38 |
| Ousmane Dembele 1+ | 71% | 1.50 |
| Ivan Toney 1+ | 70% | 1.72 |
| Ollie Watkins 1+ | 69% | 1.75 |
| Jude Bellingham 1+ | 66% | 1.55 |
top 8 of 45 priced players · across 2 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 37 higher-line quotes captured
| 5.00 |
| 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.53 |
| elo | 2041.51 | 1960.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.38 | 5.69 |
| eye test v1 | 1.68 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 4.08 | 3.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 2.57 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.69 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 1.63 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 27.31 |
| state index | 1.63 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.35 | 1.35 |