← FIFA World Cup 2026 · third place · Sat, Jul 18, 09:00 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.21 | $16.41 | +85% | — | pending |
Draw in France v England · Match result @ 4.07 | WC form edge | $10.00 | 4.07 | $30.70 | +8% | — | pending |
Draw in France v England · Match result @ 4.07 | WC sim value kor | $3.52 | 4.07 | $10.81 | +8% | — | pending |
Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.75 | $17.50 | +44% | — | pending |
Draw in France v England · Match result @ 4.07 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.07 | $15.35 | +8% | — | pending |
Draw in France v England · Match result @ 4.07 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 4.07 | $30.70 | +8% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 50% | 52% | 1.99 | fair |
| England win | 25% | 22% | 4.10 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 4.20 | value: +11% |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| France win | 65% | 1.55 |
| England win | 35% | 2.81 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 48% | 1.50 | fair |
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 3.77 | 3.84 | +1.9% | |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.95 | +2.6% | |
| France win | 1.90 | 1.87 | -1.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | THIRD_PLACE |
| Under | 35% | 52% | 2.85 | value: +49% ⚠ |
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 66% | 50% | 1.48 | fair |
| No | 34% | 50% | 3.00 | value: +49% ⚠ |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under 8.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.30 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 23% | 4.31 |
| Harry Kane | 16% | 7.25 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 12% | 9.41 |
| Jude Bellingham | 9% | 11.74 |
| Michael Olise | 9% | 11.74 |
| No Goal | 4% | 23.43 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 59% | 1.76 |
| Harry Kane | 44% | 2.46 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 38% | 2.90 |
| Ollie Watkins | 38% | 2.90 |
| Ivan Toney | 38% | 2.75 |
| Marcus Thuram | 37% | 2.90 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 35% | 3.40 |
| Jude Bellingham | 28% | 3.95 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 9 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 69% | 1.46 |
| Harry Kane | 51% | 2.01 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 49% | 2.14 |
| Michael Olise | 48% | 2.14 |
| Desire Doue | 40% | 2.66 |
| Jude Bellingham | 40% | 2.52 |
| Bradley Barcola | 39% | 2.66 |
| Declan Rice | 22% | 4.98 |
top 8 of 11 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 19% | 5.25 |
| Harry Kane | 13% | 7.85 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 7% | 15.64 |
| Jude Bellingham | 4% | 23.43 |
| Desire Doue | 4% | 31.21 |
| Michael Olise | 4% | 31.21 |
| Bradley Barcola | 4% | 31.21 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 4% | 23.43 |
| Harry Kane | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe 1+ | 100% | 1.01 |
| Marcus Thuram 1+ | 98% | 1.02 |
| Harry Kane 1+ | 97% | 1.04 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta 1+ | 96% | 1.06 |
| Ivan Toney 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Maghnes Akliouche 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Michael Olise 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Ollie Watkins 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
top 8 of 45 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 44 higher-line quotes captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe 1+ | 89% | 1.16 |
| Harry Kane 1+ | 76% | 1.39 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta 1+ | 76% | 1.44 |
| Marcus Thuram 1+ | 73% | 1.38 |
| Ivan Toney 1+ | 72% | 1.43 |
| Ollie Watkins 1+ | 71% | 1.43 |
| Ousmane Dembele 1+ | 70% | 1.50 |
| Jude Bellingham 1+ | 67% | 1.55 |
top 8 of 45 priced players · across 2 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 14 higher-line quotes captured