← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 08:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.78 | Portfolio | $22.70 | 1.78 | $17.71 | +7% | +17.71 | won |
leg 1: Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 won leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.21 | $16.41 | +85% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +14% | +7.32 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 55% | 1.78 |
| Miami Marlins win | 45% | 2.19 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.05 | 2.14 | +4.3% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.70 | 1.74 | +2.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1581.74 | 1504.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.83 | -7.56 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.40 |