← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 11:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 won leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.21 | $16.41 | +85% | -2.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +13% | +9.32 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 50% | 1.97 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.83 | 1.93 | +5.8% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.86 | 1.93 | +3.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1522.41 | 1508.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.13 | 11.45 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.10 |