Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 11:10 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93	Chaos parlay	$2.00	9.21	$16.41	+85%	—	pending
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.93	$9.32	+13%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Pittsburgh Pirates win	50%	1.93
Cleveland Guardians win	50%	1.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Pittsburgh Pirates win		1.83	1.93	+5.8%
Cleveland Guardians win		1.86	1.93	+3.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.